Diego Sanchez - 25-7, 6 KOs, 9 SUBs - is set fight in his fourth different UFC weight class when he makes his featherweight debut in Mexico this Saturday. It’s not going to be easy, as he’ll face the division’s No. 4 ranked fighter, Ricardo Lamas - 15-4, 4 KOs, 4 SUBs. And despite Sanchez’ popularity, he’s a huge underdog going into the bout.
UFC Fight Night 78 odds at BookMaker.eu
Diego Sanchez +400
Ricardo Lamas -650
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -190, under +165
Odds analysis
The odds at BookMaker.eu currently lists Lamas as a huge favorite, with a -650 money line. Despite his popularity, Sanchez is +400. The round total is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over at -200 and the under at +170. Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
THE LAST STAND OF SANCHEZ
Sanchez is well-known for participating in some of the most memorable fights in the UFC’s history. At one point, he challenged B.J. Penn for the lightweight title, although he was badly outclassed in defeat. His willingness to stand and trade has endeared him to fans, but he hasn’t really notched a significant victory in years.
Just 2-3 in his past five, Sanchez’ only wins in that span have come via an egregious split decision win over Ross Pearson and another split decision win over an ancient Takanori Gomi. The judging in the win over Pearson was so bad that UFC matchmaker Joe Silva stated publicly that the promotion would book future matches for the fighters as if Pearson had won.
After winning Season 1 of “The Ultimate Fighter” as a middleweight, Sanchez has spent time at both welterweight and lightweight. As is the case with many fighters in need of a career jumpstart, “The Dream” is hoping that being a bigger fighter in a lighter weight class can translate to success.
Lamas has been a top-5 featherweight for a few years now, although he lost a lopsided decision to Jose Aldo in his lone title shot. His only other loss in the UFC came against Chad Mendes, a top-3 145er. The Chicago native owns significant wins over top names like Dennis Bermudez, Cub Swanson and Hatsu Hioki.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Sanchez has a penchant for getting into all-out wars of attrition. His bread-and-butter is his wrestling, which he sets up by rushing in behind a volley of haymakers. Once he gets a fight to the ground, he’s relentless in advancing positions and mixing in doses of ground-and-pound. Sanchez has never been a good striker, and has evolved little in terms of the standup game since his debut in 2005.
However, Sanchez is always a wildcard because of his unwavering heart and determination. While that is a cliche for most fighters, Sanchez manifests this better than anyone. We’ve seen him rally in the final round time and time again, despite being battered for the majority of a fight. He’s fought through some of the gnarliest cuts and gashes ever and overwhelmed opponents. It’s why he’s so popular, and why fans love to watch him fight.
But against Lamas, heart might not be enough. The Chicago native is one of those fighters that is very good in every area of the game. He hits hard, has excellent angles and throws fluid punch-kick combinations. In the wrestling department, Lamas has above average takedown skills, but truly shines in dishing out savage ground-and-pound from the top.
Like Sanchez, Lamas has a wildcard intangible: the ability to thrive in scrambles. He can capitalize on tiny windows of opportunities to change the course of a fight. And when his opponent is hurt, Lamas might have one of the best killer instincts in the game.
For somebody like Sanchez, who loves to start a brawl, a fighter like Lamas is a nightmare matchup. If they go to toe-to-toe, Lamas is too good at landing debilitating counters or changing levels and taking down opponents. Also, Sanchez is a fighter who probably peaked about five years ago, and his body is breaking down as the result of countless wars. However, he’s still tough enough to last till the final bell.
PREDICTION: LAMAS wins by unanimous decision
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 78 takes place this Saturday, November 21, 2015 at the Monterrey Arena in Monterrey, Mexico. The card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
