Former Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo is fast climbing the ranks for the UFC’s featherweight division. And this Saturday, he’ll face his biggest test yet, No. 4-ranked Brazilian Jussier Formiga.
With a convincing win, Cejudo could realistically earn a title shot against longtime champion and pound-for-pound stalwart Demetrious Johnson.
UFC Odds at BookMaker.eu
Henry Cejudo -344
Jussier Formiga +281
Over/Under 2.5 rounds, over -280, under +240
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A few weeks ago, Cejudo was listed at -315 with Formiga at +260. This indicates that heavy action has been coming in on Cejudo. The expensive over reflects the lack of finishing prowess in both men and in the flyweight division in general.
AN UNOFFICIAL TITLE ELIMINATOR
The flyweight division is in desperate need of fresh faces to throw against champion Demetrious Johnson. This is exacerbated by the fact that it’s a thin division to begin with. What both Cejudo and Formiga have going for them is that neither have them have faced DJ yet, which is why we’ll likely see the winner granted a title challenge.
The UFC would like nothing better for Cejudo to earn that shot. His background as an Olympic gold medalist is an intriguing marketing angle in a division that continually fails to draw much interest with the larger MMA fanbase. What’s more, Demetrious Johnson - while one of the best fighters in the world - is devoid of the charisma that make people care about his fights.
So far, Cejudo has lived up to his high expectations with an undefeated record. He’s beaten some decent-to-good fighters in the UFC, among them former title challenger Chris Caraiso. But with just 9 professional fights, he remains largely untested against his elite peers. In fact, Formiga will be the best fighter he’s ever faced.
Formiga enters the bout on a three-fight losing streak since losing to the division’s long-time No. 2, Joe Benavidez. His only other loss in the UFC came against John Dodson, who can be considered the division’s third best fighter. For the most part, Formiga has quietly maintained his role as an elite 125-pounder, beating everyone except the very best flyweights.
FIGHT ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This is a compelling matchup between an elite wrestler and a world-class jiu-jitsu specialist. However, I see the fight taking place on the feet. Cejudo, surprisingly has relied on more on his striking than wrestling. Formiga is the same, often choosing to test out his standup before taking fights to the ground. The Brazilian has heavy hands and superb counters that he uses to hurt opponents before locking in on submissions.
In terms of MMA skill, Formiga probably comes out a little bit ahead on paper. But that does not make up for Cejudo’s elite athleticism, which will be the difference maker in the fight. I expect Cejudo to outpace Formiga on the feet and mix it up with a heavy dose of takedowns.
PREDICTION: CEJUDO TO WIN BY UNANIMOUS DECISION
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 78 takes place this Saturday, November 21, 2015 at the Monterrey Arena in Monterrey, Mexico. The card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
