Matt Brown’s loss has transformed into a real opportunity for his teammate, Neil Magny. The welterweight will fill in for an injured Brown in a high stakes matchup with uber-prospect Kelvin Gastelum this Saturday in Mexico.
The pair will meet in the headlining bout, and the winner could find himself in a title eliminator within a few fights.
UFC Fight Night 78 Odds on BookMaker.eu
Kelvin Gastelum
Neil Magny
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over, under
THE NEW WAVE OF WELTERWEIGHTS
While the 170-pound class is led by stars like Robbie Lawler, Carlos Condit and Johny Hendricks, it’s fighters like Magny, Gastelum and Rory MacDonald that are poised to be the top names in the near future. Slowly but surely, most of the top-5 are entering their mid-30s - an age where we usually start see a decline in performance.
Magny nearly broke through as a title contender after winning seven in a row, culminating in a fight with perennial contender Demian Maia. However, the 28-year old was completely smothered by the Brazilian, knocking him down a few rungs. He bounced back with a tough-fought split decision win over Erick Silva at UFC Fight Night 74.
In a similar situation, Gastelum emerged as the winner of TUF 17 and notched victories in his first five fights, including wins over respected vets like Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger. That success led to high stakes fight with now-title challenger Tyron Woodley. Unfortunately, Gastelum badly missed the weight cut and lost a close split decision. After beating Nate Marquardt at middleweight, Gastelum is back at 170 - where he has the look of a future contender.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
At his core, Gastelum is a athletic, powerful pressure fighter. He prefers to press forward behind his southpaw jab and throw hard combinations once opponents are pressed against the fence. His real strength lies in transitions, where he’s got an explosive double-leg that works as both an offensive and defensive reaction.
Magny is one of the most physically blessed welterweights in the division, standing 6’3” with an astounding 80-inch reach. What’s more, he uses his length well, flicking long jabs and a poten straight right. However, his footwork and defense is inconsistent, as he will often turtle or back straight up instead of sidestepping and countering. His clinch game is dangerous, as he uses his height and length to dish out a steady stream of knees and elbows.
While Magny is a solid defensive wrestler, we saw against Maia that he can be dragged to the mat and worn out. Gastelum has the power and wrestling skills to follow that same game plan. And although Magny is a longer fighter, Gastelum - at 5’9” - excels at getting inside and punishing foes in the pocket. I don’t think Magny will ever get comfortable, and having only 17 days to prepare for this fight will likely sap him of his stamina. Gastelum should be able to pull away and finish this in the later rounds.
PREDICTION
Gastelum to win by submission in round 4
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 78 takes place this Saturday, November 21, 2015 at the Monterrey Arena in Monterrey, Mexico. The card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 10 p.m. ET.
