Former lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson has a new opponent for his headlining bout in Seoul, South Korea this Saturday.
Instead of Thiago Alves, who withdrew from the bout due to injury, Henderson will now face another lightweight-turned-welterweight, striker Jorge Masvidal. Let’s break down the odds.
UFC Fight Night 79 odds at BookMaker.eu
Benson Henderson -250
Thiago Alves +210
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -190, under +160
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Most sportsbooks opened with Henderson at -300 and Alves at +220. The heavy action coming in on Henderson has shifted his line more than -65 points, and it’s looking like that trend will continue. The over/under sounds right, as Henderson is well-known or extending fights to the final bell.
THE NEW BENSON HENDERSON
As a lightweight, Henderson had an image problem. He barely beat popular lightweight Frankie Edgar to win the title, then defended the belt three times - all victories that went to decision. What’s more, his split decision win in his final title defense against Gilbert Melendez was widely criticized by fans and media outlets alike. Frankly, people were pissed that the judges always seemed to rule in favor of Henderson.
Henderson lost the 155-pound strap to Anthony Pettis in 2013, kicking off a 2-3 run which prompted his fall from the division’s elite. While the other two losses came against now-champion Rafael dos Anjos and current challenger Donald Cerrone, Henderson was far removed from the title picture - which the UFC probably considered a blessing in disguise.
But when injury threatened to derail the welterweight headliner at UFC Fight Night 60, Henderson answered the call to face prospect Brandon Thatch. With that, natural curiosity followed. How would a former lightweight champion fare in a bigger division against much physically larger man? When Henderson pulled off a thrilling comeback victory with a fourth-round submission, he unexpectedly became a fan favorite.
However, with an opponent like Masvidal, there are a few factors working against Henderson’s new persona. One, Henderson will not be facing a natural welterweight - so no longer is he an underdog fighting a bigger man. So now, Henderson has to make sure he puts on an exciting fight to keep MMA fans in his favor, and that’s not something that Benson is exactly known for.
Masvidal, being a talented standup technician, is not somebody that Henderson will want to trade with. That means he’ll have to rely on his wrestling game, which in turn means this might not be the most exciting fight to watch. While I have the utmost respect for the former champion, count me among the fans that prefer a good striking match over one based heavily on wrestling, control and positioning.
THE SMART PLAYS
While Masvidal is a better striker, Henderson’s wrestling-centric approach and superior cardio overrides whatever advantage “Gamebred” has on the feet. Masvidal can be easily frustrated by wrestling, and if Henderson can take him into deep waters, he can pull away in the later rounds. The pick is Henderson to win by unanimous decision.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 79 takes place this Saturday, November 28, 2015 at the Olympic Gymnastics Arena in Seoul, South Korea. The card will be televised on UFC Fight Pass starting 8 a.m ET.
