Women’s strawweight prospect Paige VanZant - 6-1, 1 KO, 2 SUBs - will meet No. 3-ranked Rose Namajunas - 3-2, 3 SUBs - in the headlining bout of Thursday’s UFC Fight Night 80.
For VanZant, the matchup represents an opportunity not only to silence her critics for good, but to secure a title shot.
UFC Fight Night 80 odds at BookMaker.eu
Paige VanZant -185
Rose Namajunas +145
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -155, under +135
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
In just the span of a week, VanZant’s line has moved 10 points in her favor, signifying that a lot of action has been coming in on “12-Gauge.” Namajunas slides even deeper into underdog territory, going from +125 to +145 in the same time frame. The over has also gotten a bit cheaper as well as more bettors seem to think that this fight will end earlier than expected.
THE STAKES
While Brazilian Claudia Gadelha is next in line to challenge strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, this bout could determine who faces the winner of that bout. VanZant’s stardom is starting to demand big fights now. Beating Namajunas - who is ranked No. 3 by the UFC - gives her a legitimate stake as a viable title challenger.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
VanZant is relentless when it comes to initiating the clinch, often throwing heavy volleys of punches, elbows and kicks while charging into her opponent. Once PVZ pins her opponents to the cage, she’ll fire knees and short punches at every opportunity. It’s a grueling style that quickly drains the gas tanks of her opponents.
From the clinch, VanZant is very good takedown artist, and she truly shines in the top position. Her endless cardio allows her to swarm with elbows, straight punches and never-ending attempts to transition into more dominant positions. She is a natural when it comes to scrambles, as she can snatch submissions amidst chaotic transitions. Although her takedown defense is suspect, PVZ has flashed a strong sweep game and always seems to end up in her opponent’s guard.
Where VanZant needs a lot of work is in the standup game. She’s as raw as sushi in terms of striking technique and defense. While her aggression covers up her vulnerabilities as a striker, a world-class Muay Thai artist like Joanna Champion could badly expose her on the feet.
In many ways, Namajunas is similar to VanZant in the cage. She also employs relentless aggression that hides a still-developing standup game. Much like PVZ, “Thug” loves to tie fighters up in the clinch and dish out damage before trying to drag the fight to the ground.
Where Namajunas holds an advantage is as a pure grappler. All of her wins have come by way of submission, and the way she sets them up indicates a high level of knowledge on the mat. Her wrestling is also underrated, as she stays glued to her opponents once she gets them to the ground.
THE SMART PLAYS
This should be an exciting fight to watch - even though at times it will be sloppy. With both fighters favoring a high pace and aggression above all else, there should be plenty of scrambles and reversals throughout. This is a fight that will come down to determination, as each woman employs a similar skill set with a deep gas tank.
I tend to favor PVZ, who has a bigger body of work. She’s looked dominant in all three of her UFC victories, while Rose has had to claw her way to wins against less established fighters. What’s more, in a five-round fight one of these fighters will wear down and make a mistake, making the under a solid play.
PREDICTION: Paige VanZant wins by submission in the fourth
HOW TO BET
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UFC Fight Night 80 takes place Thursday, December 10, 2015 at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will stream live on UFC Fight Pass starting 10 p.m. ET.
