In a lightweight tilt with “Fight of the Night” written all over it, former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis will meet the gritty Eddie Alvarez this Sunday night in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 81.
From “Showtime’s” electrifying arsenal to Alvarez’ tough-as-nails offense, there’s no way this bout won’t be awesome. Let’s take a look at the odds and break it down.
UFC Fight Night 81 odds at BookMaker.eu
Anthony Pettis - 300
Eddie Alvarez +240
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -130, under 2.5 +110
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates on a daily basis. You can also view a full range of prop bets when you sign into your account.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker.eu tab Pettis as a 3-to-1 favorite, with a surprisingly high over/under of 2.5 rounds given how quickly he is prone to finish fights. For all his hype entering the UFC, Alvarez hasn’t looked as dominant as he did in Bellator, while Pettis has been beating elite contenders. I’d expect Pettis’ line to swing deeper into chalk territory, if it does move at all.
THE STAKES
This is Pettis’ first fight since losing his title in a shocking loss to Rafael dos Anjos. Prior to that, Showtime seemed poised to become the best lightweight champion since B.J. Penn. A second straight loss would knock him out of contendership for the time being. Alvarez is coming off a gritty win over Gilbert Melendez, and a victory over a former champion like Pettis would put him on the short list of credible title challengers.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Pettis is a once-in-a-generation athlete, with unparalleled physical abilities. He makes best use of these tools in the middle of the cage, where he has space to unleash an endless array of creative, deadly attacks.
Showtime’s blinding speed can overwhelm opponents, and that applies to his strikes as well as his movement. He can cover distance in an instant, and will throw combinations that opponents don’t even see coming. While he’s not a great offensive wrestler, Pettis is one of the best guard players in the sport, and he can snatch up submissions in the blink of an eye.
Alvarez is a typical boxer, and a very good one. He is constantly circling and pawing with a stiff jab. When he gets in range, he’ll dig in and throw brutal combinations, punctuated by his powerful right uppercut and stinging left hook. The Philly native is good defensively, but his willingness to stand and trade makes him hittable.
It’s easy to forget that Alvarez was originally a wrestler, but he primarily uses that base to defend against takedowns. He shoots a decent single and blast double, but it’s rarely his primary game plan to do so. On his back, he’s very good at using his hips to work his way back to his feet, but doesn’t pose much of a submission threat.
THE SMART PLAYS
This matchup plays right into Pettis’ strengths, and the odds reflect that. While you have to admire Alvarez’ ability to take punishment and keep coming forward, but his offense pales in comparison to Pettis’ richly layered standup. Pettis to win seems like a fairly safe play.
I also like the under on 2.5 rounds at +110. Prior to meeting dos Anjos, Pettis finished four straight opponents before that mark - you can’t teach that kind of killer instinct. While Alvarez is as tough as they come, Pettis has finished similarly durable men with ease.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 81 takes place on Sunday, January 17, 2016 at the TD Garden in Boston, MA. The main card and prelims will be televised on FOX Sports 1.
