Hi kids, do you like violence? Then you want to tune into this Sunday’s heavyweight scrap between Travis Browne and Matt Mitrione, pitting one of the division’s most diverse strikers against one of it’s hardest punchers. Not many are expecting it to go the distance, including oddsmakers. Let’s break it down.
UFC Fight Night 81 odds at BookMaker.eu
Matt Mitrione +140
Travis Browne -160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +125, under -145
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates on a daily basis. You can also view a full range of prop bets when you sign into your account.
THE STAKES
In 2013, Travis Browne was seen as a legitimate heavyweight contender, with a three-fight win streak over Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. Since then, he’s gone 1-2, with brutal losses to Fabricio Werdum and Andrei Arlovski. A loss to Mitrione would knock him out of the top-7 and squarely into the mid-tier. Mitrione is 3-1 in his past four, and a win over Browne would arguably vault him him back into the top 10 - he’s currently ranked No. 14 by the UFC.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
At 6’7”, Browne is one of the rangiest fighters in the division, and he’s generally very good at utilizing his height and reach advantage. He likes to throw a steady stream of round and front kicks, keeping his opponents at a distance. Because of the leverage he gets on his long legs, a flush kick can quickly end a fight - we saw this against Alistair Overeem.
Now training with Edmond Taverdyan, Browne has become a better boxer, especially when it comes to counters and timing. However, the volume of his offense has decreased, which causes him to lose points and often allows opponents to get comfortable. I felt the best Travis Browne was the aggressive version.
Browne has exceptional takedown defense for a man so tall, and if he gets on top he is ruthless with his ground and pound. He’s got a heavy base which keeps opponents pinned to the mat, and his long limbs allow him to find submissions that aren’t there for many other fighters.
Mitrione is one of the hardest punchers in the UFC, and his hand speed is elite for the division. A southpaw, Mitrione is surprisingly agile, taking angles and throwing his vicious straight left with bad intentions. His left kick is also extremely powerful, although he doesn’t throw it as often as one would like.
Defensively, Mitrione could improve. Instead of parrying and weaving, he relies on distance and angles. That wouldn’t be as bad if he moved his head better, but he keeps his chin planted firmly on the centerline, giving opponents a stationary target to hit.
Like Browne, Mitrione’s athleticism allows him to fend off takedowns with relative ease. And even when he does get taken down, his active hips and explosiveness generally lets him escape without taking too much damage.
THE SMART PLAYS
If Mitrione was a bigger underdog, I’d be very tempted to lay a bet on him. Browne has been extremely inconsistent these days, and it might coincide with his move to Edmond Taverdyan’s gym. Since Rousey’s loss to Holm, Taverdyan’s coaching has been under heavy scrutiny, for good reason. He seems more like the classic mitt trainer and less an evolved MMA coach.
The under also seems like a safe play here, especially considering how good Mitrione is at finishing opponents with strikes early. Both Browne and Mitrione have wide gaps in their standup defense, and it seems likely that somebody’s chin is going to get cracked.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 81 takes place on Sunday, January 17, 2016 at the TD Garden in Boston, MA. The main card and prelims will be televised on FOX Sports 1.
