A third title shot against an opponent you’ve already lost to twice doesn’t come often. But don’t tell that to No. 1 flyweight contender Joe Benavidez, who’s back in action this Saturday against No. 8 ranked Zach Makovsky. As long as Benavidez keeps winning, it’ll only get harder to deny him another title challenge against Demetrious Johnson. He could take another step against Makovsky.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 82 odds at BookMaker.eu
Zach Makovsky -420
Joe Benavidez +340
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -260, under +220
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates on a daily basis. You can also view a full range of prop bets when you sign into your account.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker show Benavidez as a significant favorite, and for good reason. His only losses have come against Dominick Cruz, the bantamweight champion, and Demetrious Johnson, the featherweight pound-for-pound great. Benavidez is the clear No. 1 contender in the division, while Makovsky is just 1-2 in his past three fights.
THE STAKES
Benavidez is in a tough place, having already lost to Demetrious Johnson twice. Still, his No. 1 ranking makes sure that he’s always just one fight away from another title shot. A loss would take him out of the picture for a few fights. Makovsky could post a shocking upset and toss his name in the mix as a potential title challenger, and the fact that he hasn’t fought DJ yet makes his case stronger.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Makovsky’s game starts with his wrestling base, which includes a strong single-legs, knee taps and trips. If his first attempt isn’t successful, he has excellent chain wrestling that usually gets the job finished. Once he gets on top, he stays heavy and applies solid top control. His ground-and-pound is decent, but mostly it’s about staying busy enough to avoid standups.
While Makovsky isn’t lost on the feet, he’s not very strong in the standup department. As a southpaw, he relies mostly on the basic 1-2, and his straight left has some pop. But with just one TKO in 19 victories, punching power is obviously not one of his strengths.
Joe Benavidez is one of the busiest strikers at 125, and that’s saying something in a division filled with hyperactive fighters. He loves to switch stances and can do damage from both. What I love about benavidez is that he doesn’t discriminate with his strikes. While many strikers love to head hunt, Benavidez equally targets the dome, body and legs.
Because he’s evolved into one of the best flyweight strikers in the UFC, it’s easy to forget that Benavidez started off as a wrestle-grappler. It’s still one of the best aspects of his game today. His blast double-leg is a thing of beauty, and few have been able to stop him from getting deep in on it.
THE SMART PLAYS
Benavidez to win is an easy call. The question is why Makovsky was given such a high-level opponent after a loss in the first place. I think the answer is simple: Benavidez is running out of new guys to beat.
Another easy pick is the over. In fact, I always go with the over when it comes to flyweights. At 125 pounds, most men do not have consistent one-shot KO power. That means it takes time for a fighter to wear down his opponent to the point of landing a fight-ending shot or notching a submission victory. This should go over 2.5 rounds easy.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 82 takes place on Saturday, February 6, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
