Two Strikeforce alums will meet for the first time under the UFC banner when No. 6 ranked light heavyweight Ovince St. Preux and former Strikeforce champ Rafael Cavalcante square off this Saturday.
Both are coming off stoppage losses, although the circumstances are much more dire for Cavalcante.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 82 odds at BookMaker.eu
Ovince St. Preux -385
Rafael Cavalcante +315
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +130, under -150
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker show “OSP” as a clear favorite over Cavalcante. The Brazilian’s UFC stint has been mired by injuries, and he’s just 1-3 in the octagon. St. Preux’s stint in the big show has been much better, as he’s posted a 4-2 record in the UFC and owns a signature win over the legendary Shogun Rua. I wouldn’t expect much line movement as this isn’t a marquee matchup, but I could see OSP’s line shifting further into chalk territory.
THE STAKES
Cavalcante isn’t necessarily on the chopping block, but he’s in real danger of being relegated to the mid-tier with another loss. His luster as a former Strikeforce champion is the only thing keeping him relevant, as he hasn’t been active nor successful enough to gain any sort of momentum in the UFC. St. Preux is fighting to maintain his standing as a top-10 fighter in the division, and he needs a win to stay “in the mix”.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
St. Preux is an enormous light heavyweight with speed, power and athleticism, and has developed a well-rounded game to complement his physical gifts. Standing 6’3”, he uses his length well in the standup, operating behind a crisp right jab to set up occasional flurries of power punches. OSP is a particularly good counterpuncher, especially when opponents get overaggressive.
As an accomplished high school wrestler, OSP possesses solid takedowns and will occasionally change levels for a double-leg. He is a better defensive wrestler, as his strength and athleticism makes it difficult to drag him to the mat. When he’s on top, he relies on positioning and control instead of threatening with submissions.
Cavalcante is a striker first, and a very good one at that. With 11 KOs in his 12 career victories, “Feijao” has got a ton of pop in his strikes. Unfortunately, that’s about all he has. He’s got decent takedown defense, but Ryan Bader showed that a power wrestler can keep him grounded if they commit to that gameplan.
For the Brazilian, he needs to keep this fight standing at all costs. He has a clear advantage in the striking department, but he needs to shore up what can be a porous defense at times. In Cavalcante’s six losses, four have come by way of KO. If OSP can land a clean shot on his chin, you better believe the lights will go out.
THE SMART PLAYS
This is St. Preux’s fight to lose. Cavalcante will want to operate at a distance, as it’s likely his only chance of winning. OSP simply needs to close the distance and initiate a clinch. From there, he can dirty box or drop for takedowns to take Feijao’s striking out of the equation. Even if St. Preux opts to test his standup, he’s not completely outmatched. There’s simply more paths to victory for OSP, and a straight bet for him to win makes sense.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 82 takes place on Saturday, February 6, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
