You might not know who Jared Rosholt is. And you probably don’t know that he’s 6-1 as a UFC heavyweight. Nothing about him sticks out. From his burly frame to his grinding fight style, he’s about the most unmemorable fighter in the division. But he could force people to take notice when he steps into the cage with the popular Roy “Big Country” Nelson this Saturday.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 82 odds at BookMaker.eu
Jared Rosholt +140
Roy Nelson -170
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -140, under +120
ODDS ANALYSIS
The odds at BookMaker show Nelson as a clear favorite, which surprises me. Then again, Nelson is the more popular fighter, and his reputation as a feared knockout artist is still intact. That probably accounts for the over/under at 1.5 rounds. I’d expect savvy bettors to swing Rosholt’s line closer to pick’em odds.
THE STAKES
This matchup represents a crossroads of two fighters heading in opposite directions. Nelson was once a top-10 heavyweight and a feared matchup for any fighter. Rosholt has toiled in obscurity since debuting in 2013, but a three-fight win streak has compelled matchmaker Joe Silva to award “The Big Show” with his highest profile fight to date.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Rosholt doesn’t come close to passing the eyeball test. He’s got major dad bod over his thick, stocky frame. It contradicts his background as an NCAA All-American wrestler. Despite his appearance, he’s deceptively agile, allowing him to quickly close the distance and get ahold of his opponents.
While he’s far more comfortable on the ground, Rosholt has enough power as a big man to pose a threat with his fists. He doesn’t have the length to operate at range, but when he gets in close he can do some damage. His standup defense leaves a lot to be desired, as a skilled striker could easily pick him apart.
While I’ve always been a fan of Roy Nelson, I have to admit that Big Country probably should hang up the gloves soon. He’s just 1-5 in his past six fights, although you can make the argument that he’s faced some killers in that span. Still, he wasn’t particularly competitive in any of those losses.
Nelson fights old. His famed beard is graying, he moves slow and lacks any explosiveness. Six or seven years ago, Nelson moved with a spryness that belied his portly frame. Now he just looks flat and listless while stalking opponents to land his overhand right. While that money punch still has the potential to drop dudes in their tracks, it’s become his sole weapon - and everybody knows it.
Big Country is one of those guys that’s too tough for their own good. His steel chin allows him to absorb criminal levels of punishment, and he’ll just keep coming. It’s become painful to watch fighter after fighter set personal records for most strikes landed against Nelson, but that’s how much of a walking target he’s become.
THE SMART PLAYS
Jump all over Rosholt at +140. There’s no way she should be an underdog. He’s 10 years younger and fighting better than ever. I expect him to come forward, press Nelson against the fence, drag this fight to the ground, and pound him into oblivion. Then he’ll rinse and repeat for three rounds.
Take the over 1.5 rounds too. That total is way too low for a grinder like Rosholt, and four of Nelson’s last six fights have gone to decision. The biggest argument for taking the under is Big Country’s right hand, but Rosholt isn’t going to give him too many opportunities to land it.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 82 takes place on Saturday, February 6, 2015 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
