Britain’s Brad Pickett is flyweight fan favorite - an all-action fighter with six bonuses in the UFC/WEC. He’s also in desperate need of a win, having lost three straight bouts. This Saturday, he’ll get a chance to right the ship in his native country when he meets knockout artist Francisco Rivera in London.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 84 odds at BookMaker.eu
Brad Pickett +185
Francisco Rivera -225
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -115
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Even though Rivera is a late-notice replacement for Henry Briones, he comes into the bout as more than a 2-to-1 favorite with a -225 money line. While Pickett will essentially hold home court advantage, he’s listed at +185. It appears that Pickett has simple been on the losing end of too many wars for oddsmakers to have much faith in. Although Rivera’s last three bouts have ended before the final bell, Pickett’s penchant for going the distance brings the over/under to 2.5 rounds, but at pick’em odds.
THE STAKES
Pickett is in a strange place, he’s too popular for the UFC to cut outright, but he’s just 1-4 in his last five bouts. His most recent outing against Thomas Almeida was a particularly hard loss to stomach, given that he had the uber-prospect on the ropes in the first before getting floored by a knee in the second. He probably won’t be released if he loses against Rivera, but we can’t assume that he has much leash left.
Rivera is just 1-3 in his past four and is coming off a loss to John Lineker this past September. The Californian should look at this fight as a must-win situation, given the constant trimming of the UFC roster and the fact that he holds little name value to fans.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
While this fight pretty much has zero title implications, it should be a rousing barnburner between two men who love to trade leather. Rivera is boxer first, with above average power and smooth combinations. Even at 135, he’s been able to notch eight KOs in 11 career wins. Defensively, Rivera is solid on the feet but has had trouble with strong wrestlers in the past.
Pickett is about as experienced as anyone on the UFC roster, and is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division. He is a solid boxer with good power and a textbook jab, but is far too hittable due to lack of head movement. This may be a case of a fighter being too tough for his own good, as Pickett relies too much on his chin in a firefight.
Bucking the notion that Europeans can’t wrestle, Pickett has become a fine wrestler while training at American Top Team. He prefers an explosive blast double, and can chain it beautifully if needed. When he’s on top, Picket excels in body-head strikes and loves to sneak in elbows inside the guard.
THE BETTING PLAYS
I like Pickett at +185, for two reasons. One, Rivera is coming into this fight on late notice and will not have had the benefit of a full training camp. Who knows what kind of fight shape he’s in. And two, Pickett is the better wrestler of the two and should be able to control long periods of action from top position. I know that Pickett has lost three straight, but Rivera is nowhere near as talented as Thomas Almeida, who Pickett nearly just beat.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 84 takes place on Saturday, February 27, 2016 at the O2 Arena in London, England. The entire fight card will stream on UFC Fight Pass starting 12:45 p.m. ET.
