This Saturday, we’ll see if Gegard Mousasi can bounce back from the most devastating loss of his career. The No. 9-ranked middleweight had a two-fight winning streak and any hopes of joining the title picture derailed by a highlight reel jumping spin kick courtesy Uriah Hall. Now, he faces former title challenger Thales Leites, who is coming into the bout on the heels of a close split decision loss to the night’s headliner, Michael Bisping.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 84 odds at BookMaker.eu
Gegard Mousasi -300
Thales Leites +240
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -175, under +155
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Mousasi is holding as a 3-to-1 favorite over Leites, who comes in at +240. My first reaction is that Leites might be a bit undervalued here, as Mousasi has been far from dominant in the UFC. However, Mousasi has long been considered one of the more talented fighters in the division, and his name carries more weight. I’d expect Gegard’s line to slip deeper into chalk territory.
THE STAKES
All the pressure is on Mousasi to win. A second straight loss against a mid-to-upper-level opponent like Leites would oust him from the top-10 altogether. Perhaps Mousasi will never be a championship contender, but there is still opportunity for him to carve out a role in the upper echelon of 185. To do that, he has to beat the Thales Leiteses of the world.
For the Brazilian, a victory over Mousasi would lead to another booking against a top-15 opponent. Although he lost to Michael Bisping in his last outing, Leites had won eight straight prior to the fight, with five of those coming in the UFC. Adding a high profile scalp like Mousasi to his belt could open a lot of doors for Leites.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Leites is far from the one-dimensional grappler he was when the UFC cut him in 2009. He’s put in a lot of work on the feet, and his evolution as a striker is impressive. It helps that he possesses some wallop in both hands and can operate coming forward or landing counters.
Still, the Brazilian’s greatest strength is his grappling. He’s excellent at forcing the clinch, and has a deep arsenal of takedowns to get the fight to the ground. When he’s on top, it’s nearly impossible to stop his passes or shake him off. And we all know about his world-class BJJ background.
Mousasi prefers a standup battle, preferably one where he can exercise patience and pick apart opponents with his accurate strikes. He’s never in a hurry, and is perfectly happy to potshot for the entire fight. We saw this against Ilir Latifi, when he just basically jabbed the poor soul for three rounds.
Despite his reputation as a striker, Mousasi is a good wrestler - especially when it comes to reactive takedowns. Against aggressive opponents, he will change levels and explode for takedowns, then put his skills as a talented submission artist to use. The Dutchman is particularly good in transition, snatching subs in the blink of an eye.
THE SMART PLAYS
While Leites evolution into a three-dimensional fighter must be lauded, he is at a disadvantage in this matchup. On the feet, his power is negated by Mousasi’s precision and timing.
If Leites was a powerful classic wrestler and didn’t have to rely on the clinch for takedowns I would love his value at +240. But I just don’t see him being able to drag this fight to the ground at will, which is going to become a huge issue as Mousasi continually picks him apart. The pick is Mousasi to win at -300. And because Mousasi takes his time, take the over on 2.5 rounds at -175.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 84 takes place on Saturday, February 27, 2016 at the O2 Arena in London, England. The entire fight card will stream on UFC Fight Pass starting 12:45 p.m. ET.
