Daniel Kelly is getting another call to fight in his native country of Australia. The Melbourne native will look to win his second straight fight when he meets The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 winner Antonio Carlos Jr. this Saturday in Brisbane. Carlos Jr. is coming off an ugly 11-second no contest in his last outing at UFC Fight Night 80 and will look to improve his status in the middleweight division.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 85 odds at BookMaker.eu
Daniel Kelly +408
Antonio Carlos Jr. -511
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +131, under -156
THE STAKES
Carlos Jr. could become a fighter to watch at 185, although it’ll take more than just a win over Kelly to do so. The Brazilian is just 25 years old and is already an extremely dangerous submission artist. However, he’s just 2-1-1 in four outings so far, so it’s imperative for him to get some wins.
The pressure will be on Kelly to come through for the home crowd - he’s 2-1 in Australia under the UFC banner. Although Kelly has an impressive 10-1 record, he’s already 38 years old and doesn’t project to be anything more than a middle class middleweight. A win over Carlos Jr. would push his octagon record to 4-1 though, and that’s no small feat at 185.
KELLY’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Kelly is a four-time Australian judo Olympian, and struggles outside of that zone. He can do some damage with his mid-range punching game, but it behooves him not to try and engage for too long - especially since he’s so hittable. He needs to make this fight ugly, and he needs to do it fast.
He’ll have to walk a very fine line in this bout. Carlos can be outwrestled, but staying in the Brazilian’s guard is asking for trouble. Kelly will have to try and score points with takedowns and ground-and-pound, but fend off submission attempts in the process. Bigger guys can hold Carlos down, and Kelly will have to bully him to win.
CARLOS JR.’S KEYS TO VICTORY
The Brazilian has all the physical tool to become a top-10 fighter, starting with elite athleticism. Although he’s still raw, he’s rapidly improving on the feet. With the speed and power he possesses, Carlos can be an extremely dangerous fighter. Still, he’ll want to avoid an all-out slugfest with Kelly, who has a habit of luring opponents into brawls.
Instead, Carlos can find success mixing up his hands with takedowns. Although it’s early in his career, he’s already very good at covering his takedown attempts with combinations and ducking under his right hand. When he’s on top, Carlos stays heavy, passes smoothly and sets up submissions like a natural.
THE BETTING PERSPECTIVE
It’s going to be a long night for Kelly in front of his countrymen. Count me among the many who feel that the Brazilian has everything he needs to be a special fighter. While Kelly is tough and durable, he’s completely outmatched physically. Carlos is bigger, faster and more explosive, and the difference will be startling against the lead-footed Kelly. The pick is Carlos to win by submission in round three.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 85 takes place Saturday, March 19, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia. The card will stream on Fox Sports 1 at 10 p.m. ET following the prelims starting at 7 p.m.
