Two top-10 heavyweights in Mark Hunt and Frank Mir will clash in Australia this Saturday, although neither man can be realistically considered a title contender right now. Still, in a thinning heavyweight division, any bout featuring ranked fighters can have plenty of impact.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 85 odds at BookMaker.eu
Frank Mir +160
Mark Hunt -185
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +110, under -130
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
There hasn’t been any movement since the opening lines first posted about a month ago. Hunt as nearly a 2-to-1 favorite feels about right - he does tend to do well fighting in his adopted country of Australia. The over/under is a bit low, but the Super Samoan is renowned for his knockout power - and Mir has been cold-clocked on a few occasions.
THE STAKES
Both men are fighting to keep their coveted spots inside the top 10. But the bigger story here is that Hunt is 41 and Mir is 36, and each fighter has been losing more than they’ve been winning. With each war they grind through, the creeping calls of retirement only grow louder.
This is especially the case for Mir, who had lost four in a row from 2012-2014 - and taking a beating in each of those losses. He revived his career with two straight wins, but was sent back to earth by Andrei Arlovski in his most recent outing. Hunt has only lost to the division’s elite recently, but his once-iron chin appears to be permanently cracked, courtesy of Fabricio Werdum and Stipe Miocic.
MIR’S KEYS TO VICTORY
The biggest advantage that Mir has is his world-class submission skills. He’s right up there among the best heavyweight BJJ artists in UFC history, arguably second only to Fabricio Werdum. And whattaya know, Hunt’s biggest weakness happens to be on the ground. The former champion should do everything in his power to get this fight to the mat.
That doesn’t mean Mir is completely helpless on the feet. In fact, that might be the aspect of his game that has improved the most over the years. He’s evolved his boxing to the point where he can take out strikers like Todd Duffee, and he packs plenty of power behind his crisp 1-2 combinations.
HUNT’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Although Mir’s standup has gotten better, it’s still nowhere close to the level of Hunt’s. A former K-1 kickboxing champ, Hunt is a master at closing range with a leaping left hook and timing his opponents strikes. Watching Hunt slip and rip with devastating counters against taller men is a genuine treat.
While Hunt’s submission game is non-existent, his takedown defense is much better, and he’ll often make opponents pay with crafty punches on the break. When he does get taken down, the Samoan is good at defending submissions, but can rely too much on hoping for a standup. He’ll want to avoid a groundfight against Mir at all costs.
THE BETTING PERSPECTIVE
It seems that oddsmakers are expecting a standup affair, which reflects Hunt being the favorite and a low over/under of 1.5 rounds. I’m inclined to agree. Mir has never been a good takedown artist, and Hunt should be able to keep this fight standing. In that scenario, it’s hard not to see him getting through to Mir’s chin at some point in the five-round affair.
The best value here is in the over at +110. While Hunt’s KO power is scary to bet against, Mir is savvy enough to make it past round 2. His boxing has improved enough to prolong this fight, and it’s not like Hunt is getting any younger either.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 85 takes place Saturday, March 19, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia. The card will stream on Fox Sports 1 at 10 p.m. ET following the prelims starting at 7 p.m.
