In 2015, Hector Lombard propelled himself onto the short list of viable title challengers to welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. But a positive test for PEDs resulted in his win over Josh Burkman being overturned as well as a year-long suspension. The Cuban Olympian returns to action this Saturday to meet rising contender Neil Magny in a high stakes bout at 170.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 85 odds at BookMaker.eu
Hector Lombard -135
Neil Magny +115
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -140, under +120
Please note, the odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Lombard is a slight favorite even though he hasn’t fought in over a year. He’s actually 10 points cheaper than when the lines first opened, indicating that most of the pre-fight betting is on Magny. The over on 2.5 rounds at -140 also makes sense, given Magny’s wrestling-heavy approach.
THE STAKES
It’s crowded at the top of the welterweight division, and the winner of this bout will muddy the waters even further. With names like Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, Stephen Thompson, Carlos Condit and Rory MacDonald all in the top-6, we might be seeing the deepest welterweight division ever.
Still, the winner of Lombard-Magny could find themselves in position for a title eliminator. Lombard was on the cusp of a title shot before he got popped, while Magny is 9-1 in his past 10 fights.
LOMBARD’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Known for his vicious power and blinding hand speed, Lombard’s combinations can be terrifying. With 19 KOs in his 34 career victories, the American Top Team member can turn out the lights with a single punch. You can’t teach that kind of power.
Lombard also has an Olympic judo background, which he uses both offensively and defensively to great effect. A powerful, stocky 5’9”, the Cuban is extremely difficult to take down, and has a nice variety of explosive sweeps and trips. However, he prefers to operate on the feet, using his judo mainly in defense.
MAGNY’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Physically, Magny will be the much taller man, standing 6’3” to Lombard’s 5’9”. He has to utilize this advantage and keep the distance. Magny showed against Gastelum that he can be a superb outfighter and pepper opponents with stinging shots. Gastelum also happens to have the same stocky build as Lombard, so Magny should be well prepared.
Magny will also have an advantage when it comes to cardio. He is 10 years the junior of Lombard at 28, and we’ve seen him maintain a high pace even in short-notice fights. Lombard tends to fade in the later rounds, and it’s something that a smart, well-conditioned fighter can take advantage of. In MMA, cardio is a weapon, and Magny has the bigger guns in this aspect.
THE BETTING PERSPECTIVE
I love Magny’s value as an underdog, albeit a slight one. He is long, springy and fast - and that’s going to make it extremely difficult for Lombard to impose his game plan. Plus, Magny has been very active and has shown improvement with each outing, while Lombard has been on the sidelines due to suspension.
The over also looks like a safe play, as both men are generally very durable. Magny has never been knocked out, and Lombard has only lost by decision. This should go to decision.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 85 takes place Saturday, March 19, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia. The card will stream on Fox Sports 1 at 10 p.m. ET following the prelims starting at 7 p.m.
