We’re just a day away from UFC Fight Night 85 in Australia, which means it’s time to take a serious look at the underdogs. From Frank Mir in the headliner on down, there’s a lot for fight fans to consider.
As usual, let’s group all the dogs into categories for easy pickings.
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HOT ‘DOGS
Neil Magny +115 vs. Hector Lombard -135
There are a few things working in Magny’s favor. First off, Lombard hasn’t fought in over a year because he was popped for PEDs. So he won’t have whatever advantage he got from juicing AND he’ll have to deal with ring rust on top of that.
Physically, Lombard will be at a huge height disadvantage, coming in six inches shorter than Magny, who is listed at 6’3”. The Cuban is also 10 years the elder at 38 years old and has never had a good gas tank. Against a springy, athletic fighter like Magny, that could be the most determining factor.
WARM ‘DOGS
Frank Mir -185 vs. Mark Hunt +160
Steve Bosse +205 vs. James Te Huna -245
Jake Matthews -110 vs. Johnny Case -110
Yes, I know that Mir has a glass chin and Hunt is a renowned knockout artist. But Mir has dramatically improved his boxing and is savvy enough to make this a dirty clinch fight against Hunt if need be. Plus, Hunt has recently gone through some all-out wars and is on the wrong side of 40. Mir is not going to be an easy out.
In the case of James Te Huna and Steve Bosse, this barnburner comes down to who lands the knockout punch first. While I favor Te Huna’s experience in a technical fight, the Kiwi can be easily baited into a brawl. In that scenario, the fight becomes a toss-up.
Johnny Case is a helluva finisher, with killer instinct on the feet and on the mat. However, his biggest weakness happens to be Jake Matthews’ strength. Case can be taken and held down, and Matthews’ immense physical strength provides him the opportunity to do so.
DEAD ‘DOGS
Daniel Kelly +408 vs. Antonio Carlos Junior -511
Seo Hee Ham -125 vs. Bec Rawlings +105
Kelly is outmatched, physically and skills-wise by the much younger, stronger Carlos. The Brazilian has all the tools to be a threat at middleweight, while Kelly is one of those mid-tier guys the UFC calls to fill up a card. The Australian will have plenty of native support, but it won’t be enough to overcome the gap in talent.
Ham found plenty of success in Asian MMA, but she might have trouble against the bigger, stronger competition in the UFC. She’ll be at a four-inch height disadvantage, and she goes up against a much larger fighter in Rawlings. That’ll make it really difficult to impose her preferred gameplan of grinding opponents down through clinch warfare.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 85 takes place Saturday, March 19, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia. The card will stream on Fox Sports 1 at 10 p.m. ET following the prelims starting at 7 p.m.
