The UFC is making sure their first trip to Croatia has a headlining act that’s a big deal, both literally and figuratively. Surging heavyweight contender Ben Rothwell will meet former champion Junior dos Santos in a high stakes matchup of fighters with a combined weight of nearly 500 pounds. What’s more, oddsmakers can’t seem to agree on who to favor.
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MAIN EVENT, HEAVYWEIGHTS
Ben Rothwell -110
Junior dos Santos -110
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -135, under +115
ODDS ANALYSIS
Since we last checked a few weeks ago, Rothwell’s money line has moved up nearly 5 points from -115 to -110. In that same time, Dos Santos has gone from +100 to -110. We got a pick’em fight on our hands. Given the finishing abilities of both fighters, the over/under is low at 1.5 rounds, with the over in the chalk at -135.
THE STAKES
For Rothwell, a win over Junior dos Santos pretty much guarantees him a title shot. Of course, nothing is for certain when it comes to fight bookings, but it would give Big Ben the best current resume of any heavyweight. Beating the Brazilian would extend his winning streak to five, with three coming against top-10 fighters.
Dos Santos is mired in a 1-2 slump and desperately wants to avoid the first losing streak of his career. More importantly, a win would keep him on the short list of legitimate heavyweight contenders. A loss would send him tumbling down the divisional ladder and out of the title picture for the time being.
ROTHWELL’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Big Ben possesses an awkward, herky-jerky standup style, but he’s a proven striker with fight-ending power. While he’s more known as a heavy hitter, it’s his jiu-jitsu that’s been in the spotlight recently, as he’s nabbed two slick subs in a row over experienced fighters. In general, Rothwell is well-rounded, strong and durable, but not particularly quick or athletic.
He cannot let dos Santos get comfortable at distance. Cain Velasquez showed that the Brazilian has trouble with pressure and a high pace. While Rothwell cannot match the relentless output of Cain, he is excellent when it comes to feinting and initiating a clinch battle. If he settles into a boxing match with JDS, it will not end well for Rothwell.
DOS SANTOS’ KEYS TO VICTORY
The former champion’s wheelhouse is his technical boxing - which is tops among big men. Like Rothwell, his fists pack plenty of wallop, and he’s got no problem laying dudes out cold. Physically, dos Santos is a much better athlete than Rothwell, and will have a marked speed advantage.
Dos Santos needs a shot of self-confidence. In his last fight against Alistair Overeem, he was surprisingly tentative, even though the fight took place in his comfort zone. It doesn’t help that the four fights before that were absolute wars that left him bruised, bloodied and battered. His scary beatdown at the hands of Cain Velasquez seems to have changed him, but at 32 he still has time to turn things around.
FIGHT ANALYSIS
If this were two years ago, few would give Rothwell a shot at beating dos Santos. Now, the fight’s a tossup. On paper, JDS’ technical boxing should give him a clear avenue to pick apart the awkward Rothwell on the feet. But mentally, Rothwell is in a completely different headspace. We’ve never seen him more confident, while dos Santos seems hesitant to pull the trigger.
I see Rothwell infighting for the majority of the bout, nullifying the boxing advantage. Expect a lot of tieups and clinches from Rothwell, who is about 20 pounds heavier than dos Santos. For this reason, I love the over/under on 1.5 rounds at -135, as this fight should go at least three. Expect a war of attrition, and Rothwell to emerge as the victor.
BOXING ODDS: Rothwell UD dos Santos
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 86 takes place on April 10, 2016 at the Zagreb Arena in Zagreb, Croatia. The card will be televised on Fox Sports 1 starting 2 p.m. ET.
