Gabriel Gonzaga’s new opponent this Saturday, Derrick Lewis, could not be more different than his original opponent. Instead of the wrestle-minded, pillow-fisted Ruslan Magomedov, Gonzaga meets an all-or-nothing brawler with serious one-hitter quitter power.
The co-main event just got a lot more exciting.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 86 odds at BookMaker.eu
Heavyweights
Derrick Lewis -185
Gabriel Gonzaga +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +120, under -140
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
THE STAKES
Derrick Lewis has won two in a row, garnering some momentum in a thin heavyweight division. He’s 5-2 overall under the UFC banner, and another victory could actually force the UFC to give him an upper class fighter. That would be amazing, considering that many still feel he’s a one-dimensional brawler.
Gabriel Gonzaga is fighting for job security. He likely staved off a pink slip in his last bout by notching a win over Konstantin Erohkhin - prior to that he had lost three in a row. The Brazilian is one of the UFC’s longest tenured heavies, with over 20 fights in the octagon, but at 36 the end of his career is looming.
FIGHT ANALYSIS
There are two major statistics to pay attention to here. The first is that 13 of Lewis’ 14 wins have come by way of KO/TKO. The second is that Gonzaga has been knocked out in eight of his 10 losses. In his past three fights alone, “Napao” was finished twice, by Matt Mitrione and Mirko Cro Cop.
There is evidence that Lewis is fighting smarter as well. Yes, he will still blitz opponents in the first round - that much is for sure. But he is getting better at sensing whether they’ll survive the initial onslaught and conserve his energy. Against Viktor Pesta and Ruan Potts, Lewis was able to notch KOs late in the second and early in the third. Despite his doughy frame, he does have some cardio.
Gonzaga’s strength is his well-rounded skillset, although he’s become much more standup-oriented over the years. He hasn’t notched a submission since January 2013, even though he’s a very good BJJ black belt. It would behoove him try and take Lewis to the ground, considering “The Black Beast” probably half as skilled as the Brazilian in jits.
PREDICTION
If Gonzaga is smart, he’ll tie up Lewis as soon as possible and try and drag this fight to the ground. But that’ll be extremely difficult considering that Lewis is the bigger man. At some point, Lewis is going to plant a bomb on Gonzaga’s noggin, and the Brazilian’s been through too many wars to hold up against a nuke artist like “The Black Beast”. The pick is Lewis to win by knockout.
UFC ODDS: LEWIS TKO GONZAGA, ROUND 2
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 86 takes place on April 10, 2016 at the Zagreb Arena in Zagreb, Croatia. The card will be televised on Fox Sports 1 starting 2 p.m. ET
