Former Strikeforce, K-1 and Dream heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem is on the verge of an opportunity to add the most prestigious title in MMA to his trophy case. With three straight wins -- including a KO over former kingpin Junior dos Santos -- the Dutch import could plausibly earn a title shot with a win this Saturday over Andrei Arlovski. Oddsmakers are favoring him to complete the task.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 87 odds at BookMaker.eu
Alistair Overeem -200
Andrei Arlovski +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +100, under -120
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Arlovski’s fragile chin reared its ugly head again in his last bout against Stipe Miocic, which makes him a solid underdog against a KO artist like Overeem. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alistair’s line trend downward on fight night, given that he is the superior striker in a matchup between two men who prefer to keep the fight on the feet. However, Overeem’s own vulnerable chin might drive some action on Arlovski at the deadline.
OVEREEM’S KEYS TO VICTORY
“The Demolition Man” has built a reputation for being an extremely aggressive fighter, showing disdain for his opponents and walking them down en route to spectacular knockout wins. However, a 1-3 stretch from 2013-2014 in which he was knocked out three times has forced the big man to reevaluate his approach.
Now training with Jackson-Wink, the new Overeem is a much more patient standup artist. Now, he often waits for opponents to get off first, setting him up for counters. His one-shot KO power makes him no less dangerous, but his volume has dropped off considerably. Still, we’ll see flashes of the old Overeem, particularly in the clinch, where his infamous knees have crumbled dozens of foes.
Against Arlovski, his clearest path to victory is to close the distance and put him against the fence. From there, he can unleash his vicious knees to the body and mix in an underrated takedown game. He would arguably have the advantage in a kickboxing bout, but Overeem is fully aware that he cannot take too much punishment from a hard hitter like Arlovski.
ARLOVSKI’S KEYS TO VICTORY
The former champion was on the cusp of another title shot until he ran into buzzsaw in Stipe Miocic. Like Overeem, Arlovski has had to partially reinvent himself because of a chin that fails to hold up against. He is still a boxer first, but a much more patient fighter -- we rarely see the all-out blitzes that defined a younger Arlovski.
Arlovski needs to put pressure on Overeem, not allowing him to find his comfort zone. Of course, this means putting himself in danger, but his favored 1-2 combination could easily change the course of the fight. If it turns to a kickboxing match at range, “The Pitbull” is going to have a long, painful night. If Arlovski can trigger short brawls, he evens the odds.
The Belarusian is also better suited for drawn out battles than his opponent. Because this is a five-round fight, Arlvoski would be smart to drag the heavily muscled Overeem into the championship rounds. We’ve seen Alistair repeatedly fade late, but if he’s left largely undamaged he can easily go five rounds. Arlovski has to make him work for a full five rounds.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Anything can happen when you have two heavyweight strikers with relatively weak chins. But this is a matchup that favors Overeem. In addition to having more power and more weapons on the feet, his conservative approach makes it much more difficult to land a shot on him. What’s more, Arlovski can be bullied into making mistakes, and nobody plays a bully better than Overeem. Expect the Dutchman to lay out the Belarusian before the final bell.
UFC ODDS: Alistair Overeem KO Andrei Arlovski, Round 2
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines now at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night Rotterdam takes place May 8, 2016 at the Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam Netherlands. The card will air on FOX Sports 1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
