It might not be the headlining fight this Saturday, but Albert Tumenov vs. Gunnar Nelson is arguably the most intriguing. The bout is an old school style matchup between two blue chip prospects, pitting Tumenov’s violent striking against Nelson’s considerable submission arsenal.
Oddsmakers are currently favoring the striker.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 87 odds at BookMaker.eu
Albert Tumenov -200
Gunnar Nelson +160
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The lines have remained stagnant since we first reported on them a few weeks ago, which means that there’s been little action or that betting has been split on both fighters. It’s natural that Tumenov is a favorite, as his flashy brand of KO power naturally turns more heads than Nelson’s steady ground game.
THE STAKES
In a stacked welterweight division, there is no shortage of big fights for the winner. Both Nelson and Tumenov stepped up their competition in their last bouts, with Tumenov beating a respected vet but Nelson losing to a contender in Demian Maia. They’re two of the brighter prospects at 170, and a win puts them on the fringe of the top-10.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Tumenov comes into the fight on a five-fight win streak, three of which he earned by KO. His knockout victory in a brawl with Alan Jouban is where he drew the most hype. In that bout, Tumenov was ridiculously aggressive, and his blinding hand speed and fight-ending power were on full display before putting away the bigger man for good.
However, in his most recent outing, Tumenov struggled with the speed of Lorenz Larkin. Most notably, he failed to consistently check leg kicks, leaving his lead leg a grotesque shade of purple. He did enough to earn a split decision, but it was clear that he had no answer Larkin’s speed and evasiveness.
Nelson isn’t as gifted as athletically as Larkin, so he can’t follow the same game plan. Instead, Gunni needs stay in close quarters and drag this fight to the mat, where he’ll have a considerable advantage. He’s one of the highest level submission artists in the division, and we really don’t know what Tumenov offers on the feet. We can be sure his ground game isn’t as good as Nelson’s.
However, Nelson is a small welterweight as well, and it will be difficult for him to bully the spry Tumenov to the ground. What he can do is control the fight with his chain wrestling, making sure he’s got a hold of “Einstein” at all times. Of course, he has to be active enough to make it look like he’s not stalling either.
THE SMART PLAYS
The UFC odds at BookMaker peg Tumenov as a 2-to-1 favorite, and I have to agree with that assessment. It’s not like Nelson is Demian Maia, who could wrestle a bear to the mat. Tumenov should be able to fight off enough takedowns to blast his opponent on several occasions over the course of three rounds. While Nelson isn’t powerful to impose his game, he’s also never been stopped. He should make it to the final bell under heavy fire.
UFC ODDS: Albert Tumenov UD Gunnar Nelson
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines now at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night Rotterdam takes place May 8, 2016 at the Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam Netherlands. The card will air on FOX Sports 1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
