Karolina Kowalkiewicz will put her undefeated record on the line this Saturday when she square off with TUF 20 vet Heather Jo Clark. A native of Poland, Kowalkiewicz was successful in her UFC debut against Randa Markos and could become a key player in a thin 115-pound division. Clark is looking to get her groove back after spending all of 2015 on the shelf with injuries.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 87 odds at BookMaker.eu
Heather Jo Clark +210
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -250
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +225
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It makes sense that the Polish fighter is the favorite, as Clark wasn’t very impressive in her run on TUF. Plus it’s been more than a year and a half since she’s fought, and that kind of inactivity does not bode well for a 35-year old fighter. The over as a heavy favorite is expected, given that fights in this weight class usually go to the final bell.
THE STAKES
It only takes a few wins to get to the top-10 at strawweight -- this is the most shallow division in the UFC. But because Kowalkiewicz’s undefeated record, another win would probably earn her a match against a top-7 opponent. It doesn’t take much to get thrown into the fire at 115 pounds.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Kowalkiewicz prefers to operate on the feet, and has shown a willingness to engage in a firefight. She’s got good timing with her right hand and is good at throwing combinations. She’s shown a better understanding of footwork, but her striking can still look awkward at times. But that’s to be expected, given that she never stops moving.
The Pole avoids the mat whenever possible, and in general does not like fighting up close. When clinched, she’ll throw sharp knees -- but they’re mainly to break away from her opponent. While she has decent submission skills, she can largely be controlled on the ground by powerful wrestlers.
Luckily for Kowalkiewicz, Clark is not a wrestler, although her submission game isn’t bad either. Her bread and butter is her boxing, where she’s shown crisp hands and good technique. She’s not as active as her opponent, but Clark is the bigger, stronger fighter. And like her opponent, Clark is willing to get her hands dirty in a brawl.
THE SMART PLAYS
It’s easy to pick Kowalkiewicz in this matchup, but don’t be surprised if Clark’s size and hands give her some trouble. Because both women have no problem engaging in a slugfest, this should be a fun, back-and-forth fight. In the end, I think the Polish native’s active game and movement will earn her enough points to get the win.
The most obvious bet here is the over, as neither hit hard enough to have much faith in a KO or a knockdown that leads to a submission. The wild card here is Clark’s cardio, which failed her at times in TUF. If that’s the case, we could see her wilt under Kowalkiewicz’s pressure.
UFC ODDS: Karolina Kowalkiewicz UD Heather Jo Clark
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines now at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night Rotterdam takes place May 8, 2016 at the Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam Netherlands. The card will air on FOX Sports 1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
