Undefeated in four UFC fights, Chris Wade is taking a step up in competition this Saturday. His opponent, Dagestani native Rustam Khabilov, has been in the cage with the likes of Jorge Masvidal and former lightweight champion Benson Henderson.
Even as a late-notice replacement, Khabilov is more than a 2-to-1 favorite over Wade.
Bet on UFC Fight Night 87 odds at BookMaker.eu
Chris Wade +170
Rustam Khabilov -220
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -220, under +180
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Obviously, there are many that think that Wade has bit off more than he can chew, given Khabilov’s -220 money line. Given that neither Khabilov nor Wade are known finishers, the over on 2.5 rounds is deep in the chalk at -220. I don’t expect these lines to move much, although I wouldn’t be surprised is Khabilov’s line goes down considering Wade’s inexperience against proven UFC vets.
THE STAKES
Khabilov is 1-2 in his past three, and a loss against an untested prospect like Wade would be disastrous. I doubt he’d get a pink slip for it, but he’d be on thin ice for sure. For Wade, a win would easily be the biggest of his career. Beating a solid fighter like Khabilov would make him 5-0 in the octagon, and a UFC record like that demands attention and bigger fights.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Wade is a submission wrestler by trade, which belies the fact that he loves to throw kicks. He uses his legs to score points and keep opponents at bay, but also to hide explosive takedowns. When he commits, he finishes with authority. And if he’s not successful the first time, he’ll stay glued to an opponent until he finds a way to get it to the mat.
On top, he stays active, preferring ground-and-pound to top control. It’s all a precursor to prompt a desperate scramble, where he excels in finding chokes amidst the chaos. If his opponent gets back to his feet, Wade is happy to brawl and has the chin to do so.
Khabilov himself is a powerful wrestler, and is best known for landing spectacular suplexes. From there, he stays extremely heavy, controlling opponents and grinding them into dust. Once Rustam gets on top, it’s rare to see an opponent ever get back to the feet before the round ends.
However, he’s a very basic striker, only using it as a means to get in close for a body lock. He’s got decent technique and can hurt opponents, but he’s not comfortable in a prolonged standup war. That might hurt him against Wade, who can quickly turn fights into a slugfest.
THE SMART PLAYS
This is a tougher call than the UFC odds at BookMaker would suggest. While I lean towards Khabilov’s workmanlike wrestling, Wade is every bit as powerful and more predictable to boot. Because we’re gambling and want to maximize our payouts, a small bet on Wade makes sense here. He has more potential in the striking game and is a strong enough wrestler to fend off Rustam’s takedowns.
If you want a sure thing, the over at -220 is the way to go. It’s expensive, but neither man is an evolved enough striker to have much faith in an early TKO, and they’re wrestling will likely cancel each other out.
UFC ODDS: Chris Wade UD Rustam Khabilov
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines now at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night Rotterdam takes place May 8, 2016 at the Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam Netherlands. The card will air on FOX Sports 1 following early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
