It’s time to find out where Jorge Masvidal stands as a lightweight-turned-welterweight. Since announcing his move to the division after a loss to Al Iaquinta in April 2015, Masvidal has yet to be tested by a true welterweight. This Saturday, he’ll face one of the best gatekeepers in the weight class when he steps into the cage with Lorenz Larkin.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Jorge Masvidal +120
Lorenz Larkin -140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -260, under +215
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
THE STAKES
While Larkin has is just 4-4 since coming over from Strikeforce, he has plenty of value as a skilled, explosive athlete. A win over Larkin means something. Masvidal was a top-10 lightweight and has a fan-friendly striking game. If he can beat Larkin, it’ll prove he has the chops to face some of the division’s better fighters. He’s probably too small to ever be considered a contender, but there’s always a natural inclination to root for little guys fighting bigger dudes.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Masvidal is a pure striker who loves to utilize his long, 74-inch reach with crisp, straight punches. The American Top Team fighter is very good at keeping opponents at the end of his range, keeping them at bay with a textbook jab. Then he’ll switch it up with multi-strike combinations, often ending with a low kick.
Because he’s so focused on keeping fights standing, Masvidal has developed a strong sprawl and good takedown defense. These facets are more important than ever now that he’ll be facing naturally bigger men who will have a much easier time getting him to the mat. Masvidal has never been a submission threat, preferring to tie up opponents in hopes of a standup.
Like Masvidal, Larkin prefers to punch, and he has the explosive power to end the fight at any time. The Riverside native is often shorter than his opponents, and as a result he prefers to fight in close quarters. Throwing leather inside the pocket serves him well, as he can generate incredible power with straight punches and elbows in a short distance. He’s comfortable at longer ranges as well, and is perhaps more dynamic ins pace, as he’s flashed everything from superman elbows to jumping spinning back kicks.
However, Larkin is too dependent on his power to save him, as he has not evolved his defense much over the past few years. He often backs up straight into the fence, and his head movement is lacking. While his counters are fast enough to win most brawls, a measured striker can pick him apart.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
This is an extremely tough fight to call. Larkin has more physical tools, but Masvidal is a much more cerebral fighter. Both are prone to lapses in offense as they wait for counters to open up, so don’t be surprised if there are prolonged periods of inactivity. In the end, I have faith that Larkin’s speed will allow him to score more points over the course of three rounds.
UFC odds: Lorenz Larkin UD Jorge Masvidal
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 88 takes place Saturday, May 29, 2016 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will be televised on FS1 starting 8 p.m. ET.
