In what should be a fun opener to this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 88 main card, “The Irish Dragon” Paul Felder - 11-2, 7 KOs, 1 SUB - will test his fearsome fists against the noggin of journeyman Josh Burkman -- 28-12, 7 KOs, 10 SUBs.
Though neither are ranked in the top-15, they have a penchant for close, exciting fights.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Joshua Burkman +215
Paul Felder -260
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -190, under +161
THE STAKES
Just over a year ago, Paul Felder was 9-0 and a bright prospect in a loaded lightweight division. Then came two straight losses. One came against Edson Barboza, who just beat Anthony Pettis to cement his status as a contender. That defeat we can understand. But in his next fight he dropped a split decision to Ross Pearson, who is the type of gatekeeper that prospects need to bet. While he stopped the bleeding with a win over Daron Cruickshank, Felder badly needs wins over quality opponents.
Burkman arguably fits the definition of a quality opponent, though he’s just 1-2 in his past three and has already been cut by the UFC once. For “The People’s Warrior”, wins mean job security. He has already dropped down to lightweight, so he doesn’t have many options left to save his career if the losses keep piling up.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
There is little that Burkman can’t do, but he’s not particularly dominant in any area of MMA. At 35, he’s past his athletic prime, but he’s always been a good athlete with solid cardio. On the feet, Burkman will often switch stances in search of angles, and he’s partial to his straight left-right hook combination.
Unlike many fighters, Burkman seems to have no preference between striking and wrestling, but his ground game is arguably his best skill. He defends takedown well, and when he’s on top he is very good at controlling his opponents. We’ve seen him end a bunch of fights with his trademark guillotine, and he loves to snatch it in transition.
Felder is a powerful fighter who has built his game entirely around counters. He’s a superb counter-wrestler and an aggressive counterstriker. His favorite weapons are spinning attacks and forward-stepping knees, and they look spectacular when they land. The problem is that there just isn’t much beyond that, and he was exposed by the multi-layered striking of Ross Pearson and Edson Barboza.
But The Irish Dragon -- from Philadelphia - showed new wrinkles in his game in his last bout against Daron Cruickshank. If he can evolve into an above-average striker and his wrestling defense remains rock solid, there’s still a bright future for Felder.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
So far, nobody’s been able to really control Felder through wrestling, and Burkman simply isn’t strong enough to be the first. With this in mind, consider this bout a striking match. While Burkman is a wiley vet with a ton of tricks up his sleeve, I lean toward’s Felder’s progression and natural physical advantages. He hits a lot harder than Burkman, and the power shots should be the difference.
As for the over/under, each of their last three fights have seen a third round. While Burkman can lock in quick subs and Felder’s flashy attacks have ended fights early, I see this fight going to the final bell. Felder has great submission defense, and Burkman is too experienced to be felled by a spinning attack.
UFC odds: Paul Felder UD Joshua Burkman
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 88 takes place Saturday, May 29, 2016 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will be televised on FS1 starting 8 p.m. ET.
