It’s a question that always intrigues fight fans: how will a former champion fare fighting at a larger weight class? This Saturday, longtime 135-pound titleholder Renan Barao will test the featherweight waters when he faces the division’s No. 9-ranked Jeremy Stephens.
Let’s break down the fight and odds.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Jeremy Stephens +140
Renan Barao -170
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -115, under -105
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Although Barao was sent packing from the bantamweight division after two lopsided losses to T.J. Dillashaw, nobody else was able to beat him. In fact, he straight up dominated quality fighters like Urijah Faber, Michael McDonald and Brad Pickett. The body of work - including a ridiculous 33-fight unbeaten streak at one point - speaks for itself.
He’s beaten better fighters than Jeremy Stephens, and it can be argued that featherweight was always his natural weight class. His well-known struggles with making the cut to 135 pounds culminated with a title rematch being cancelled after he had to be taken to the hospital for cutting too much weight too quickly.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Barao has elite skills in every aspect of the game. Primarily a striker, he’s a stout 5’7” with a low, solid center of gravity. This lets him tee off while maintaining his balance -- rarely does he overcommit on his strikes. The Brazilian particularly loves throwing stinging low kicks and overhand rights, and the speed at which they come can be surprising.
He can easily be baited into a brawl, as we’ve often instinctively seen him buckle down and start winging combinations if he gets tagged. His base and technique usually lets him get the better of exchanges, but T.J. Dillashaw also showed that this tendency can be exploited. While Barao has 15 submissions to 8 KOs, most of those submission came immediately after he knocked down an opponent with strikes.
Stephens is one of the most well-traveled vets in the UFC, with more than 35 fights and nearly 12 years of pro experience. There was a time he was a reckless slugger, but he has refined much of his game to revolve around evasiveness and counterstriking. While he doesn’t have much in the way of power, he has a dynamic skillset and is a four-limbed fighter.
In the past, Stephens was a good wrestler, but he doesn’t reach into that toolbox as often anymore. It probably wouldn’t serve him well against the stout Barao, and it would probably behoove him to try and avoid the clinch against Barao -- who is particularly dangerous with clever knees in space and on the fence.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
Though he’s lost three of his past four, Stephens has shown an ability to fight up to his competition. His last four opponents were all top-10 fighters, and he was able to pull off a stunning upset of Dennis Bermuda. Against Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway, Stephens was able to make it to the last round.
But much like those bouts, Stephens is facing a much more skilled fighter. He’s good enough to make it to the final bell, but “Lil Heathen’” has no advantages over Barao. The pick is the former champion by unanimous decision.
UFC odds: Renan Barao UD Jeremy Stephens
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 88 takes place Saturday, May 29, 2016 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will be televised on FS1 starting 8 p.m. ET.
