Ok fight fans, we’re just a few days away from a free card on UFC Fight Night 88, which means it’s time to lock in your bets. As always, there are underdog considerations to make. We’ve neatly sorted them out for you, from live ones to picks to stay far, far away from.
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LIVE ‘DOGS
Rick Story +101 vs. Tarec Saffiedine -120
Jorge Masvidal +105 vs. Lorenz Larkin -125
While Tarec Saffiedine is clearly the better striker in his matchup, Story is the type of brute that specializes in forcing opponents to fight in a phone booth. On top of that, his natural strength gives him the ability to be a clinch bully for three straight rounds. The fact that he was able to outmuscle a fantastic grappler in Gunnar Nelson says a lot. But buyer beware: Story hasn’t fought since late 2014 due to injuries.
Lorenz Larkin is an explosive natural athlete with jitterbug quicks and fight-changing power. Masvidal isn’t nearly the same physical specimen. But he’s a much savvier standup artist, and is much more active when it comes to throwing combinations. Larkin can get caught up in counterpunching, and that will lead to him losing rounds. It’s very plausible to see Masvidal outpointing him to the final bell.
WARM ‘DOGS
Cody Garbrandt +135 vs. Thomas Almeida -165
Jeremy Stephens +140 vs. Renan Barao -170
Chris Camozzi +180 vs. Vitor Miranda -215
While Thomas Almeida is projected to be a title contender in the very near future, we shouldn’t overlook Garbrandt, who has been extremely impressive in just eight pro fights. And when you have knockout power with a boxing background like Garbrandt, you have way more than just a puncher’s chance at victory. Especially since Almeida prefers to strike as well and operates inside the pocket.
While I think that Renan Barao is much more skilled than Jeremy Stephens, the blueprint to beat the Brazilian was clearly laid out by T.J. Dillashaw. In fact, Barao was beaten so thoroughly that many are questioning whether he can be the same fighter. On top of that, he’ll be fighting in a bigger weight class for the first time, and we don’t know how he’ll adjust.
In the case of Vitor Miranda vs. Chris Camozzi, Miranda has all the hype on the heels of a three-fight first round knockout streak. But the dude is 37 and hasn’t faced any real opponents yet. Camozzi is far from a world-beater, but he’s been around the UFC a very long time and is still just 29 years old. His experience could easily carry him past Miranda.
STAY AWAY
Jessica Eye +136 vs. Sara McMann -191
Aljamain Sterling -415 vs. Bryan Caraway +335
Jake Collier +105 vs. Alberto Pereira -125
Chris De La Rocha +205 vs. Adam Milstead -245
Both Sara McMann and Jessica Eye are fading fast in the bantamweight division, with losses quickly piling up. While I favor McMann’s wrestling background, her inability to round up different parts of her game has hampered her career.
Aljamain Sterling is a rising star, but he’s got an extremely tough test in Bryan Caraway. Sterling’s strenth, wrestling, just so happens to play right into the hands of Caraway’s best skill: submissions. At these odds, Sterling is just too expensive to safely back.
Collier vs. Pereira and De La Rocha vs. Milstead are bouts featuring fighters we really don’t know much about -- so you probably want to play it safe and let these play out. This is especially true in the heavyweight matchup between the latter. Both men have finished every one of their fights, so it’s likely somebody will go down, but we just can’t be sure about who.
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HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 198 takes place on Saturday, May 14 at the Arena de Baixada stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on Fox Sports 1.
