An intriguing welterweight matchup goes down this Saturday when No. 10 Tarec Saffiedine meets No. 11 Rick Story at UFC Fight Night 88 in Las Vegas. Beyond the rankings, the bout pits Saffiedine’s smooth kickboxing style against Story’s powerful wrestling base. On top of that, the winner would likely be in position for a high stakes matchup against a contender.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Tarec Saffiedine -270
Rick Story +225
Over/under 2.5rounds, over -275, under +215
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODS ANALYSIS
Both men are coming off resounding wins over quality opponents. Saffiedine soundly beat former contender Jake Ellenberger this past January, and Rick Story eked out a split decision win over highly touted prospect Gunnar Nelson. The difference here is that Story’s last fight was in October 2014, so over 18 months will have passed since he stepped into the octagon. For that reason, Saffiedine is a clear favorite going into the matchup.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Let’s assume that Story is the same fighter he was before being sidelined by injury. At 31, he’s still young enough to be considered in his athletic prime. He has always been known for his ridiculous natural strength, which he puts to good use with physical clinch work and hard takedowns.
When striking, Story prefers to box and notably loves to throw stinging hooks to the body. He is extremely aggressive, never giving opponents the distance to get comfortable. That also makes him pretty easy to hit, as he is always in range. However, Story never gets into prolonged striking bouts, as his boxing is mainly a precursor to the clinch.
Saffiedine is very much a fighter who needs distance to perform his best. He is one of the most technical kickboxers in the UFC -- watching him slice legs to shreds with low kicks is just awesome. But his standup game has a ton of depth as well, particularly in his footwork. It’s hard to land a clean shot on him, and he always has a solid base when he throws.
The storyline here is whether Saffiedine will be able to stop Story’s clinches and takedowns. The Belgian is good defensively in both those phases, but Story is one of those guys who will happily spend whole rounds pressing opponents into the cage. That can quickly wear a fighter down -- to the point where they have little resistance left in the final stanza.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
While Story turns every bout into a dogfight, we have to account for some ring rust in this matchup. While Saffiedine has been oft injured in the past, he last fought just five months ago and should be in his groove. While Story gets his touch back, Tarec will likely be scoring points and dishing out some serious damage. That should be enough to carry him to a decision victory.
UFC odds: Tarec Saffiedine UD Rick Story
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 88 takes place Saturday, May 29, 2016 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will be televised on FS1 starting 8 p.m. ET.
