If you’re one of those fight fans that isn’t into lighter weight classes, you need to check out this Saturday’s main event between Cody Garbrandt and Thomas Almeida. Not only are these two young studs undefeated, they have 26 finishes between them -- in 28 combined victories. That is some serious finishing ability for the 135-pound class.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Cody Garbrandt +135
Thomas Almeida -165
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -155, under +135
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The money lines have stayed put since we last checked in a few weeks ago, indicating that there’s been even action on both fighters. Almeida is understandably the favorite, as he’s 20-0 compared to Garbrandt’s 8-0. He has a larger sample size to draw conclusions from, and thus far he’s been spectacular.
Again, the over/under at 1.5 rounds is unusual for a bantamweight fight -- especially one that’s scheduled for five rounds. But these guys don’t see the final bell often. Almeida’s last three fights haven’t even gone to a third round, while Garbrandt has gone to decision just once.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
Garbrandt was a boxer before he became an MMA fighter, so it should be no surprise that he’s most comfortable on the feet. The pugilistic experience is evident in every phase of his striking, as he throws tight, crisp combinations with minimal exertion and textbook technique. He plants his feet when he throws, giving him power in both hands, and he can hurt anyone at any time.
We haven’t seen much of his ground game yet, but he will shoot for takedowns to keep his opponents honest. He’ll throw a few shots while on top of an opponent, but rarely does he engage in prolonged grappling matches. Garbrandt hasn’t really been tested by a real wrestler, though he’s spry enough to be a good sprawler.
It’s unlikely that we’ll see too much BJJ though, because like Garbrandt, Almeida prefers to strike. The Brazilian aggressively plants himself in the pocket, forcing fighters to engage him in the mid range. Almeida’s speedy combinations and power makes him absolutely lethatl in that distance. However, it also makes him vulnerable to strikes as well.
At just 24, Almeida has the chin to survive an all-out firefight, as he demonstrated when he came back from being floored by Brad Pickett. That type of fighting won’t do any favors for prolonging his career, but he’s fast become one of the most exciting fighters in the division. He is one the most athletic, explosive strikers in the division, and we have to point out that he’s knocked out 14 of his last 15 opponents.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
This is a tough call, as Almeida’s aggressive style and preferred range falls right into Garbrandt’s wheelhouse as a superb boxer. Still, we have no idea how Garbrandt will respond to the constant pressure and close quarters combat. At -165, Almeida is relatively cheap for a somebody that has more than twice as many fights against higher level opponents.
When it comes to the over/under of 1.5 rounds, simple math dictates that the over is a smart play. The under simply gives you a much smaller window to work with, and both men have the requisite cardio to go the distance. Given that it’s a five-round fight, I see a longer feeling out process that will carry this fight into at least the third round.
UFC odds: Thomas Almeida TKO Cody Garbrandt, Round 4
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 88 takes place Saturday, May 29, 2016 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will be televised on FS1 starting 8 p.m. ET.
