One of the UFC’s most entertaining featherweights is back in action this Saturday. Cub Swanson, a former dark horse title contender and a willing brawler, will lock horns with Japanese veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri on the main card of UFC Fight Night 92. Considering the slugfests these men have engaged in, it’s hard not to see this winning Fight of the Night.
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Cub Swanson vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
ODDS COMING SOON
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Swanson is justifiably the favorite coming into the bout, as his level of success inside the octagon is much higher than Kawajiri’s. Although both have fought elite lightweights in the past, Kawajiri has struggled since coming over to the UFC from Dream. The over/under on this three-rounder makes sense at 2.5 rounds, as both men have established a sustained pattern of going deep into fights.
FIGHT PREVIEW
From 2012-14, Swanson pieced together an impressive six-fight win streak to battle into title contention. However, he failed miserably against the division’s elite with two straight lopsided losses -- to Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar. Losing to the No. 2 and No. 3 guys in the division is nothing to be ashamed about, but the defeats likely forced him out of the mix for good.
Still, Swanson has value as an entertaining scrapper, and in his most recent outing he was able to stop the slide with a win over Hacran Dias. When it comes to technical boxing, Swanson is still an extremely dangerous fighter who can put together stinging combinations. And though his knockout ratio doesn’t imply blunt power, there is no doubt that Cub can club.
Where he’s always been a little weak is in the wrestling phase. He probably still has nightmares about Frankie Edgar taking him down and turning his face into mush. While Swanson’s takedown defense is solid, once on his back he can be controlled from the top ride.
Against Kawajiri, that may be a problem. Never a technical striker to begin with, the Japanese native has always been one of the division’s stronger wrestler. Few are so relentless in pursuing a takedown once he’s attached himself to a limb or a torso. And when he’s on top, he stays chest-to-chest to maintain control.
However, Kawajiri can be too willing to brawl, and it’s a problem that has plagued him his entire career. Durable to a fault, “Crusher” will eat punches and return wild fire in the form of haymaker hooks. Against a slip--and-rip artist like Swanson, Kawajiri’s wild combinations could lead to devastating counters.
BREAKDOWN AND PREDICTION
This fight all boils down to whether Kawajiri can take Swanson down. If he can do that, he’ll likely suffocate Swanson on the mat. But if Swanson can keep this fight standing, he’ll have a distinct advantage. I’m on the fence with this. Kawajiri is 38 years old to Swanson’s 32, so we have to think his strength is on a decline. Plus, Swanson’s aggressive style might lead to some wild exchanges that he should be able to capitalize on.
The pick is Swanson to win. But you might also consider the over here, as Kawajiri has proven ridiculously durable. Although Swanson was beaten up by Holloway and Edgar, he was also able to make it to the final round in each of those bouts. Kawajiri isn’t as dominant as either of those men, so it’s unlikely Swanson bows out early if he’s in trouble either.
UFC odds: Swanson UD Kawajiri
HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 92 takes place Saturday, August 6, 2016 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. The card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
