This Saturday’s heavyweight showcase features two popular fighters who might not be around much longer. Roy “Big Country” Nelson, the promotion’s most famous fat guy, and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, a bruiser who owns over Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem, are a combined 4-11-1 across their past 16 fights. The winner can stave off retirement talk for just a little longer.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Roy Nelson -445
Antonio Silva +350
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +170, under -200
Odds Analysis
This is a matchup that must have have stumped oddsmakers. Both men have fallen so steeply from their primes that it’s nearly impossible to predict how they’ll perform. But Silva’s deterioration in the post-TRT era has been frightening. His agility is gone, and his durability along with it. Nelson is a rightful favorite here, along with the low over/under at 1.5 rounds.
Fight Breakdown
It’s getting harder and harder to watch Roy Nelson fight. At 40 years old, he is taking shocking amounts of punishment from much larger fighters. The fights against Overeem and Miocic alone probably shaved a few years off of his career. You have to commend Nelson’s heart, but he’s a walking example of being too tough for his own good.
Honestly, we don’t even know whether he’s got the same killshot power in his right hand. Big Country hasn’t slept anyone with it since beating Big Nog in 2014. The good thing for him is that punching power is usually one of the last fighting characteristics to fade - Dan Henderson just earned a title shot at 44 years old with his nuclear H-bomb
What’s more, Nelson is fighting smarter these days. There was a disturbing period of time when literally all he did was shuffle around the cage with his right hand cocked, looking an opportune moment to unleash. BUt in his last two bouts, he’s consciously making an effort to clinch and chain together takedowns.
Since losing for a second time to Cain Velasquez, Antonio Silva has never been the same. Both of his title challenges against Cain resulted in the type of scary beatdowns that can make conservatives question whether MMA is really just human cockfighting.
But what has hastened Silva’s downfall even further is the UFC’s decision to ban TRT, a performance enhancing substance that raised testosterone levels. It’s unfortunate for Silva, who legitimately needed treatment for a condition called acromegaly. Since he’s been of TRT, Silva has lost nearly all of his athleticism and has looked lethargic in a rapidly growing number of defeats.
Breakdown and Bets
Both men have been losing with increasing regularity. The difference is that Silva is getting knocked out in the first round, while Nelson is still gutting it out to decision. It’s a very clear indication of who is closer to the end of their career. Nelson has the toughness to eat the Brazilian’s best shots, and we should be treated to a vintage right hand KO from Big Country.
UFC Odds: Nelson TKO Silva, Round 1
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 95 takes place on Saturday, September 24, 2016 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia Brazil. The card airs on FS1 following the prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
