Prior to losing the bantamweight belt to T.J. Dillashaw in May 2014, Renan Barao was Dana White’s public choice for best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. And it was a justifiable argument, as the Brazilian had been unbeaten in 32 straight fights. But after getting thrashed twice by Dillashaw, Barao moved up to featherweight - and lost his first fight at 145 to Jeremy Stephens. Now, he’ll face a midlevel opponent in Phillipe Nover in hopes of resuscitating a flagging career.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Renan Barao -425
Phillipe Nover +345
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily.
Odds Analysis
As expected, Barao is the favorite over the Brooklyn native. Despite his recent troubles, the Nova Uniao’s resume has to be accounted for - he’s faced far better competition than Nover has. No surprise that the over/under is 2.5 rounds, as both men have a habit of going deep into fights.
Fight Preview
Barao is a counter-puncher by nature, and particularly loves to slip and rip a powerful left hook. Although he usually is not the first to throw, the 29-year old is particularly aggressive in terms of invading the pocket and baiting opponents to throw. And when Barao counters, he does so in combination. Rarely will you see him throw a single shot.
Although Barao quickly climbed up the pound-for-pound ranks, his two dismal outings against Dillashaw seems to have drastically affected his confidence. In his last fight, Barao entered as a favorite against Jeremy Stephens, and left the cage a battered loser. The common turning point in all three of those bouts was a big shot landed on Barao. He can be easily rattled with a clean hit, and never seems to fully recover inside the cage.
Nover is a very good athlete with plenty of tools, but never quite fulfilled the potential that led to Dana White dubbing him “the next Anderson Silva” during his time on The Ultimate Fighter. In rhythm, Nover looks like a world-class striker with quick, brutal kicks and explosive counter lefts. He has tried to stay more busy in recent fights, but output remains an issue.
When it comes to wrestling, “Super” finishes takedowns with authority, although he has a bad habit of shooting from too far away. He is especially dangerous when he’s on top, with slick passes and submission savvy.
Betting Values
This is a matchup that could give Barao some problems. Nover’s athleticism and striking will be issues, but the American’s volume will once again rear its ugly head. Barao scores points through combinations, and his aggression will make Nover uncomfortable the entire time. The pick is Barao to win by unanimous decision.
UFC odds: Barao UD Faber
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 95 takes place on Saturday, September 24, 2016 at the Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia Brazil. The card airs on FS1 following the prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
