If Louis Smolka keeps putting on masterful jiu-jitsu clinics like he did in his last bout against Ben Nguyen, it won’t be long before he’s considered a contender at 125 pounds. This Saturday, The No. 9-ranked Smolka will meet No. 15 Sergio Pettis - younger brother of former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis - in a matchup that could secure a high-profile bout in the near future.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Louis Smolka -255
Brandon Moreno +210
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -175, under +155
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was written.
Odds Analysis
Though Smolka may be flying under the radar, oddsmakers’ eyes are wide open when it comes to his money lines. The Hawaiian comes in as a clear favorite over the 22-year old Moreno, who is actually a cast member on this season of The Ultimate Fighter. The over/under here is set at 1.5 rounds, with the over at -175.
Fight Preview
At 25 years old, Smolka has won four straight - with three of those coming by way of stoppage. At 5’9”, “Da Last Samurai” is tall for the division, and he’ll come into the bout with a three-inch height advantage over Pettis.
Though Smolka has yet to learn how to utilize his lanky frame in the standup, he leverages every inch of his length on the ground. His long limbs allow him to sink in locks and chokes with ease, and he can find submissions from every angle. Against Nguyen, Smolka showcased a stellar grappling IQ and outclassed a BJJ brown belt in dominating fashion.
A former WFF champion, you can currently catch Moreno on this season’s The Ultimate Fighter, but he lost a tough matchup against Alexandre Pantoja. A native of Tijuana, Mexico, Moreno possesses good jiu-jitsu skills, securing eight submissions in 11 career victories. At just 22 years old, he’s a good prospect who has plenty of time to get better.
Still, if he was near Smolka’s level, he’d probably be in the UFC already - or he’d have at least advanced deep into TUF. What’s more, he’ll be making his UFC debut on about a week’s notice. The odds are already stacked against the youngster, and taking on a surging contender like Smolka is a tough ask.
The Betting Breakdown
Even though Smolka’s striking is rudimentary at best, his brand of jiu-jitsu is special - even at this young age. Once he gets ahold of Moreno and drags him to the ground, fans will likely be treated to another brilliant display of jiu-jitsu. You can take confidence in picking Smolka to win.
UFC Odds: Smolka UD Moreno
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 96 takes place on Saturday, October 1, 2016 at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. FOX Sports 1 will televise the main card starting 9 p.m. ET following the Fight Pass prelims.
