This Saturday, the UFC heads to Portland, Oregon for a solid Fight Night card filled with a bevy of intriguing matchups. In the main event, bantamweight knockout artists John Dodson and John Lineker clash in an attempt to creep into title contention. Flyweight prospects Louis Smolka and Sergio Pettis pits grappler vs. striker, respectively. And former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks continues his quest for UFC gold.
The action begins at 9 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1. Let’s break down your betting options and make a few quick picks.
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Main Event
Bantamweights
John Dodson -120
John Lineker +100
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -110, under -110
Both Dodson and Lineker are former flyweights that have found new life fighting in the bigger bantamweight division. Clearly, they are benefitting from the increased stamina and energy that comes with not having to cut excessive weight.
Dodson is a two-time flyweight title challenger with explosive speed and power. He gave pound-for-pound king Demetrious Johnson his toughest test, matching Mighty Mouse step-for-step and rocking him with lightning quick counters. One of the best athletes on the entire roster, “The Magician” is a threat to end the fight at any time with his right hand.
Like his opponent, Lineker is a speedy fighter with knockout power. But whereas Dodson is more of a counterpuncher, “Hands of Stone” is an aggressive pressure fighter. And there might not be a single guy in the UFC who attacks the body with more commitment than Lineker.
Betting Breakdown
Let’s gamble. This is a 50-50 fight, so I’d lean towards Lineker’s underdog odds. However, the best bet here is the over on 2.5 rounds at -110. Though these guys are defined by their finishing ability, neither have ever been knocked out. This should make it to the third round.
UFC odds: Dodson UD Lineker
Lightweights
Will Brooks -255
Alex Oliveira +210
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -190, under +160
Brooks gets a quick turnaround after taking care of Ross Pearson in his UFC debut this past July. While the former Bellator champion wasn’t particularly impressive, his credentials make him a fighter to watch - even in the stacked lightweight division. His next test is Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira, who presents Brooks with a true striking threat.
A hulking lightweight who has competed at 170 pounds, Oliveira is a superb kickboxer - you’d never think that he’s only been competing in MMA for five years. The Brazilian has athleticism in spades, and his accuracy makes him a dangerous sharpshooter at range. In the clinch, he’s an absolute monster, which is something you’d expect from a fighter his size.
Brooks is already one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division. There’s nothing he can’t do well, and like Oliveira, Brooks’ plus athleticism only strengthens his skills. What’s more, he comes into the matchup on a nine-fight winning streak, beating the Bellator’s best along the way.
Betting Breakdown
Brooks to win and the over on 2.5 rounds are both solid plays here. The difference here will be “Ill” Will’s wrestling, as Oliveira struggles against guys who can muscle him. Brooks’ lack of knockout power means this fight goes to a final frame - seven of his past nine wins have gone to decision.
UFC odds: Brooks UD Oliveira
Flyweights
Louis Smolka -255
Brandon Moreno +210
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -175, under +155
Smolka opened a lot of eyes with the BJJ clinic he put on Ben Nguyen - a legitimate brown belt. The complexity of his grappling vocabulary and an unusually lanky frame makes him a nightmare on the mat. Pettis is more known as the little brother of former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, but the 23-year old prospect has quietly posted a 5-2 record in the octagon.
Betting Breakdown
Take Smolka to win, and again take the over. Struggling against wrestlers seems to be a requirement for bearing the Pettis surname, and Smolka’s commitment to grappling is going to be a huge problem. Prolonged rolling exchanges also eat up clock, so it’s likely this’ll go past the round total.
UFC Odds: Smolka SUB Pettis, Round 3
How to Bet
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC Fight Night 96 takes place on Saturday, October 1, 2016 at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. FOX Sports 1 will televise the main card starting 9 p.m. ET following the Fight Pass prelims.
