The UFC’s king of pay-per-view sales is back. No, we’re not talking about Conor McGregor. This is all about Brock Lesnar, the WWE superstar who brought in massive crowds and captured the heavyweight title in just his fourth professional bout. As a special “one-off”, Lesnar will face former title contender Mark Hunt at UFC 200.
Bet on UFC 200 odds at BookMaker.eu
Brock Lesnar +145
Mark Hunt -170
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +190, under -230
ODDS ANALYSIS
Hunt is a clear favorite at -170, which is understandable given the fact that it’s been nearly five years since Lesnar last competed inside the octagon. Hunt has fought an astounding nine times since Brock retired, and though he’s 5-3-1 in that time, the “Super Samoan” has maintained a top-10 ranking -- and his terrifying KO power is still there.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
There’s a general consensus that Lesnar doesn’t like to be hit, and it’s common knowledge that Hunt is one of the most devastating knockout artists on the UFC roster. This simple dynamic controls how the fight will play out.
Lesnar is a massive physical specimen, tipping the scales right at the 265-pound weight limit even though he barely has any body fat. His comic book muscles are a big reason why he’s such a big draw -- Lesnar just looks like a guy that should be trucking dudes over. He’s also a fantastic athlete, a former collegiate wrestling champion who also spent time on NFL practice squads.
It’s his size, speed and power that let him compete at the UFC’s highest levels. In terms of actual MMA skills, Lesnar lags far behind in everything except for wrestling. But as we learned in his first UFC stint, takedowns and brutal ground-and-pound can take you a long way.
Lesnar -- and everyone else -- knows that his only chance to beat Hunt is to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible. Trying to stand and trade with the former K-1 champion would be a death wish, especially for somebody who doesn’t have years of striking experience.
What’s more, Hunt is fully aware of his deficiencies on the ground, and has obviously spent a lot of time crafting great takedown defense in recent years. He moves well for a big guy, and is an underrated athlete with a very good sprawl. All of his opponents are fully aware that his ground game is lacking, yet only a few have been able to get him to the mat.
BETTING ANALYSIS
While most fighters, journalists and media analysts seem to feel like this is Hunt’s fight to lose, I’d seriously consider Brock at +145. Hunt does have very good takedown defense, but the reality is that the only real wrestler he’s fought in the past five years or so was Stipe Miocic. And Miocic was able to take him down at will when the two met.
While Lesnar does not have the fully rounded skillset that Miocic possesses, he is 40 pounds heavier and far more explosive. When he drives for takedowns, he’s like an unstoppable freight train. And he only needs a few minutes on top to completely change the fight. Just look at his fights with Frank Mir to see how much power he can generate in tight spaces.
SMART PLAYS: Lesnar TKO Hunt, Round 3
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HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 90 takes place on July 7 on Fight Pass, The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale takes place on July 8 on FS1, and UFC 200 takes place on July 9 on pay-per-view.
