Strawweight contenders Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz have only lost two one fighter between them: current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. That will change this Saturday when they meet in Rio De Janeiro.
It’s a compelling matchup in an exciting division. Gadelha is physical savage with brute strength and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kowalkiewicz is a durable scrapper with a decorated kickboxing background.
Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down the fight based on your betting options.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Claudia Gadelha -280
Karolina Kowalkiewciz +220
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -300, under +250
Odds Analysis
Gadelha is nearly a 3-1 favorite at -290, with Kowalkiewicz at +230. In six UFC fights, “Claudinha” has only been an underdog once: in her second meeting with Joanna Champion. To her credit, Kowalkiewicz’ is a smaller underdog than any other opponent of Claudia’s.
The over/under for this three-rounder is 2.5 rounds - the highest possible round total. Oddsmakers are clearly expecting this to go to the final bell, with the over at -300.
The Case for Gadelha
With the exception of Jessica Andrade, Gadelha is the strongest fighter in the strawweight division. On top of that, she possesses excellent athleticism as well. These physical blessings give her a natural advantage over nearly everybody in the division, and that includes KK.
By now, Gadelha’s merits in BJJ are well-known: she is a multiple-time world champion in the sport. She has translated her base discipline to MMA at the highest level, and her strength and quickness allows her to get opponents to the mat at will. To date, Claudinha is the only fighter who has been able to get Joanna Jedrzejczyk to the mat and keep her there.
With her striking game quickly improving, Gadelha’s only real weakness is her cardio. Thankfully, this is a three-round fight, which she seems to have little trouble getting through. And it’s likely she won’t have to work nearly as hard to get Kowalkiewicz to the mat, giving her more energy to finish strong.
The Case for Kowalkiewicz
Watching Karolina fight, it might be easy to question how she has found so much success. KK isn’t very fast or athletic, nor does she do much damage with her strikes. The Polish fighter doesn’t have a great takedown game nor is she much of a threat on the mat.
So what makes her the No. 2 fighter in the division? Quite simply, it’s her toughness and resolve. Behind a solid kickboxing game, Kowalkiewicz will keep coming forward under heavy fire. At some point, KK finds a way to overcome her average physical traits.
She got lit up by Jedrzejczyk for three rounds but kept pushing ahead until scoring a knockdown in the fourth. Against Rose Namajunas, Kowalkiewicz was clearly outgunned in a sparring match but turned the tide with knees in the clinch.
We’ve seen Gadelha fade after two hard rounds. KK must force her to exhaust her energy and come on strong late to score a major upset.
How You Should Bet
Gadelha is a huge favorite in the UFC odds for a reason - she is much more talented than her opponent. But the most important factor in this fight will likely be the time. Gadelha is not as reliable in five-round fight - but there might not be a single strawweight that can beat her in three.
Without having to worry about her gas tank, Gadelha should easily score the win. But at -280, her money line is simply parlay fodder.
UFC odds pick: Parlay Gadelha to win at -280
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UFC 212 takes place on Saturday, June 3, 2017 at the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. The card airs on pay-per-view after the FS1 prelims.
