Demian Maia, the UFC’s No. 5-ranked welterweight, is set to meet one of the division’s most violent fighters, Matt Brown. The pair will clash in early May, on a Fight Night card set to take place in Brazil.
And if the low-key Maia can extend his four-fight winning streak, he could be in line for a title eliminator at nearly 40 years old.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Demian Maia -425
Matt Brown +320
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -155, under +125
OPENING ODDS REACTION
While Maia has never been a very popular fighter, he’s getting serious respect from oddsmakers as more than a 4-to-1 favorite over the No. 6-ranked Brown. At 38 years old, Maia continues to defy Father Time and grind out convincing decisions. I’m more than a little surprised that the opening over/under is so low at 1.5 rounds. Maia is the new John Fitch, and it takes time for him to implement his game.
IS MAIA TITLE-WORTHY?
Since losing back-to-back fights between Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald, Maia has ripped off four straight wins. His last two were particularly eye-opening, as he thoroughly dominated Neil Magny and Gunnar Nelson - two of the best prospects at 170.
Amazingly, Maia has never been closer to challenging for the welterweight title. He has mastered a grinding fight style that maximizes his elite jiu-jitsu skills, and recent opponents have been powerless to stop it. And any mention of Maia’s BJJ has to come with the obligatory reference to his multiple world championships in the sport. Any fighter will tell you that the Brazilian is one of the best submission artists to ever grace the octagon.
But beating Matt Brown does not make him the No. 1 contender. Brown is just 1-2 in his past three, although two of those losses came to Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler. He got a bounce-back victory against an unheralded Tim Means, and now he “The Immortal” gets an opportunity to establish himself as a valid contender again.
What helps Brown is that he’s one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster. It’s easy to sell a Matt Brown fight, which means he can get more favorable matchmaking from the UFC. So if Brown can pull off an upset against a surging Maia, a title eliminator is a distinct possibility. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the winner of this matchup was the next man up in case as an injury replacement to the next title bout.
THE EARLY PLAYS
The best value here is the over, and it’s not even close. Brown is one of the most durable welterweights on the roster, and Maia’s primary goal is to grind opponents into fine powder. This is going to go past 1.5 rounds, and -155 is a much better value than Maia to win at -425. Brown is an intriguing underdog, but I fully expect Maia to drag him to the ground and keep him there for majority of the three rounds.
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