It’s time to see how former lightweight contender Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone deals with a true welterweight. Forget about his last bout with blown up lightweight Alex Oliveira -- the Brazilian fights at 155 and was stepping in on late notice. Cowboy’s bout this Saturday against former middleweight title contender Patrick Cote should be considered his first true test at 170.
Bet on current UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Co-Main Event
Donald Cerrone -165
Patrick Cote +130
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -125, under +105
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The odds listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Although Cerrone will be the smaller man, his impressive resume at 155 precedes him. Cowboy’s a fighter that has stood toe-to-toe with the best in the deepest division in the UFC, and his success has to be accounted for. Cote’s comeback story after being given a UFC pink slip in 2011 is a nice story, but he’s only faced midlevel opponents since he came back to the octagon.
The over/under for this three-rounder is 2.5 rounds, with the over as the more expensive play. Although Cerrone has a reputation as a finisher, it’s here where his status as the smaller man comes into play. Oddsmakers have to assume that it’ll take more work to put away a naturally bigger fighter.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
While Cote first entered the UFC as brawler with a brutal right hand, he’s become a much more well-rounded fighter over the years. At 36, you can consider him squarely in the “solid veteran” portion of his career.
Still, his first preference is to strike, and he is quick to trade punches in the pocket. He’s added a much-needed long distance game to his standup though, flinging low kicks and rounds to the body at range. What’s more, Cote has layered in a nice counterstriking arsenal to complement his aggressive style.
While Cote will never be a great wrestler, he’s gone through great lengths to be a serviceable one. He will change levels nicely in the middle of his combinations, and has a particularly nice single. On top, he stays active but doesn’t really dish out too much damage.
Cerrone needs no introduction at this point -- he’s fought four times a year every year since 2013. Most other fighters struggle to get even three fights in 12 months. Cowboy is an explosive striker, with superb boxing and wicked kicks. His past as a pro kickboxer is very much evident today.
People tend to forget that Cowboy is also an elite submission artist. Though he’s not a dominant wrestler, he is unpredictable when he shoots and can land reactive takedowns. What’s more, Cerrone is extremely comfortable on his back and can lock up submissions in an instant. One needs to only look at his 16 submissions versus his 5 KOs.
BETTING VALUES AND PREDICTION
We’ve seen lightweights struggle against bigger men recently -- most notably former 155-pound kingpin get lit up by Bellator champion Andrey Koreshkov. Recently, Jorge Masvidal fell short in his his first welterweight fight against Lorenz Larkin. But Cote is not Koreshkov or Larkin. The Canadian is a 36-year old, mid-tier fighter that is slightly past peak.
While Cote is the broader man, he and Cerrone are the same height. This projects to be a prolonged kickboxing match, and in that scenario Cerrone is faster and far more skilled. At -165, Cowboy is a great value. Cote will pumped up in front of his home crowd, but the talent disparity will be apparent by the second round.
UFC odds: Donald Cerrone UD Patrick Cote
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. at UFC Fight Night 89 on June 18, 2016 at the TD Place Arena in Ottawa, Canada. FS1 will televise the card starting 9 p.m. ET.
