This Saturday, UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum will make his first title defense against a dangerous Stipe Miocic. It’s a tough matchup in a division where no champion has been able to defend the strap more than twice. Can “Vai Cavalo” become the first man to make it to three?
Bet on UFC 198 odds at BookMaker.eu
Fabricio Werdum -165
Stipe Miocic +140
Over 2.5 rounds, over -130, under +110
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The money lines haven’t changed since we last checked in a few weeks ago. Naturally I’d expect some movement on fight night, but it’s doubtful that we’ll see anything dramatic. Werdum deserves to be the favorite on the strength of his last few wins, but Miocic makes an intriguing play at +140.
MIOCIC’S KEYS TO VICTORY
The native Clevelander is one of the most well-rounded heavyweight fighters on the roster. There’s nothing he can’t do well, from boxing to wrestling to submissions. The 33-year old also packs seriously underrated power. He turned the lights out on Andrei Arlovski in his last outing, and punched out the infamously iron-chinned Mark Hunt -- although that was more an accumulation of a five-round beatdown rather than a single punch.
His finest performance to date is the aforementioned matchup with Hunt, where his speed, power and combination wrestling was on full display. Stipe battered the former K-1 champ on the feet, utilizing his speed to stay out of harm’s way. Even more impressive was how he mixed in takedowns and controlled Hunt on the mat -- and the Kiwi is no slouch when it comes to takedown defense.
He needs to exact the the same gameplan against the champ, making use of his speed to score points and avoid strikes. Changing levels for takedowns would also keep Werdum honest, although he should be extremely tentative about engaging a world-class BJJ black belt on the feet for too long.
WERDUM’S KEYS TO VICTORY
It’s still hard to fathom how good of a Muay Thai striker that Vai Cavalo has become. It doesn’t seem like that long ago where he was lying on his back literally praying to then-Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem to come into his guard. But training with Rafael Cordeiro at King’s MMA was basically a striking power-up for the Brazilian.
Combine his upgraded striking with one of the best ground games in UFC history, and you have a dynamic threat that can end a fight anywhere, anytime. But how much time does he have left as an elite fighter? At 38 years old, he’s closer to the end of his career than the beginning -- though we have to mention that he’s never looked better.
Against Miocic, Werdum’s easiest path to victory is on the mat, where no heavyweight can match his skills. Ideally he’d operate from the top, but he’s never been much of a takedown artist. No matter, since his guard is just as deadly. It would probably be to his benefit not to try and kickbox for too long with Miocic, but considering he outstruck Travis Browne and KO’d Mark Hunt, he’s not at a disadvantage there either.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN AND VALUE BET
Expect both men to test their standup, in which case we’ll see Miocic’s classic boxing tested by Werdum’s Muay Thai. And it’s unlikely that Miocic will try and take down Werdum. While the champion would probably love to show off his jits against Miocic, he’s not a strong enough wrestler to bring the challenger down at will.
I expect this to become a dangerous sparring match, and in that scenario I give the edge to Miocic. He is younger, quicker and battle-tested. On top of that, he’s a cerebral fighter who has an innate understanding of his standing on the scorecards and can make in-fight adjustments. It’ll be close, but the pick is Miocic to score a minor upset.
UFC odds: Stipe Miocic TKO Fabricio Werdum, Round 4
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 198 takes place on Saturday, May 14 at the Arena de Baixada stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on Fox Sports 1.
