Gunnar Nelson might be best known for being a training partner to Conor McGregor, but all indications point to the Icelander stepping out of the Irishman’s shadow and becoming a player at 170. This Sunday, the karateka/submission grappler will meet a streaking Santiago Ponzinibbio, another 170-pounder who seems ready to take a step towards contention.
Despite the lack of starpower in this main event, the pairing is a good one - both men are fighting at career-best levels. Let’s take a look at the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu and break down your betting options.
Main Event, Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson -192
Santiago Ponzinibbio +166
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -215, under +170
Matchup Preview & Betting Analysis
Everything seems to have clicked for Nelson recently. In back-to-back victories, the 28-year old has looked completely comfortable in all MMA phases. Most impressively, his striking has caught up to a savvy submission game that has notched 12 SUBs in 16 career wins.
Against Alan Jouban, Nelson looked like the second coming of Lyoto Machida, employing a wide-stanced, bouncy karate style that flummoxed a bigger, powerful striker. No longer was his standup solely focused on finding ways to tie up and drag the fight to the mat. We saw a man who was fully comfortable on his feet and doing serious damage in his own unique way.
Like Jouban, Ponzinibbio is an aggressive striker who throws everything with power. He is most comfortable when he is pressing forward and making opponents eat leather. The Argentine’s comfort in the pocket can throw other fighters off-kilter, and he’s excellent at cutting angles to find more landing places for his limbs.
On the feet, this will be an exciting clash of striking styles: Nelson’s karate against Ponzinibbio’s kickboxing. The edge has to go to Nelson in this phase: his base is perfect for landing counter’s against Ponzinibbio’s pressure.
And even if Nelson does find himself getting hammered on the feet, he can always revert to grinder mode and bring his opponent down. He’s been able to go full boa constrictor against every one of his UFC opponents save Demian Maia - but nobody is going to hold that against him.
How You Should Bet
When it comes to the UFC odds, stick with Gunni to win. On paper, he is a nightmare for a fighter like Ponzinibbio, and there are more paths that the Icelander can take to victory.
UFC odds pick: Nelson to win at -195
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UFC Fight Night 113 takes place on Sunday, July 16, 2017 at the SSE Hydro Arena in Glasgow Scotland. The card airs live on FS1.
