After serving as rival coaches on this season of The Ultimate 24, flyweight No. 1 contender Joe Benavidez will meet Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo in the co-main event of the TUF 24 Finale. It’s a matchup that should draw more interest than the main event, a gimmick pitting the winner of the season against the UFC’s most dominant champion, flyweight titleholder Demetrious Johnson.
Let’s take a look at your betting options and break down the fight.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu now
Flyweights
Henry Cejudo +160
Joe Benavidez -200
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -225, under +175
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily and subject to change.
Fight Preview
Benavidez has settled in as the second best 125-pounder in the UFC. As a flyweight, Benavidez has only lost twice in 11 fights - both coming against Demetrious Johnson. During that run, he’s beaten very good fighters like Ali Bagautinov, John Moraga, Zach Makovsky and Jussier Da Silva. Even more telling is that he’s never been anything less than a -210 underdog against anyone other than “Mighty Mouse.”
However, against Cejudo, Benavidez is “merely” a -185 favorite. That is still significant, but a far cry from the -300 money lines he’s regularly enjoyed against other fighters. Cejudo only has one loss in 11 career fights, against the seemingly unbeatable Johnson. Starting with an elite wrestling background, the Mexican-American has quickly evolved, rounding out his skillset with a fierce striking game.
Still, his inexperience in every other MMA phase aside from grappling is apparent. While Cejudo moves well around the ring and throws fast, hard hands, he is still a novice when it comes to countering and defense. He also needs some more seasoning to be able to use his wrestling to set up his strikes and vice versa.
Benavidez is a wrestle-boxer with awkward but effective striking. He’s slowing down a bit at age 32 with more than 10 years of fighting experience, but he’s a few steps ahead of most guys to begin with. Training with Duane Ludwig, Benavidez’s standup has improved enough to the point where he is comfortable switching stances and brawling if need be.
Like Cejudo, Benavidez is a strong wrestler, but he uses it more as a threat than a consistent tool for winning. When he commits to the takedown, Benavidez can smoothly chain together attempts in space or against the fence.
Betting Values
The consensus was that Cejudo was thrown to Johnson much too early, and you could probably make the same argument for this matchup against Benavidez. Though they are trending in different career arcs, Joe as nearly three times as many fights as Cejudo and still fighting in his prime.
Still, Cejudo’s wrestling and athleticism presents an x-factor that puts further risk on Benavidez to win. The safe bet is the over on 2.5 rounds at -240, and it’s not too much more than the -200 you’d lay on the favorite.
UFC odds pick: Over on 2.5 rounds at -240
How to Bet
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The Ultimate Fighter 24 Finale takes place on Saturday, December 3, 2016 at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas Nevada. FS1 will televise the card starting 10 p.m. ET.
