The UFC heads to the Windy City this Saturday for a Fox Network card featuring the Rousey-slayer herself, Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm. The defeat also happened to be Holm’s first pro MMA loss. She’ll look to bounce back against a tough Valentina Shevchenko in the main event of UFC on FOX 20.
Also on the card, former lightweight contender Gilbert Melendez returns from a PEDs suspension to face the surging Edson Barboza in a pivotal clash at 155 as the co-main. Let’s take a look at your betting options for the main card.
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MAIN EVENT
Women’s Bantamweights
Holly Holm -400
Valentina Shevchenko +300
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -155, under +135
BREAKDOWN
Miesha Tate exposed Holm’s lack of a ground game, but even a superb wrestler like “Cupcake” had all sorts of trouble taking her to the mat in the first place. Shevchenko is a decent grappler, but few women are on the level of Tate when it comes to wrestling. Furthermore, Holm will probably be even more defensively inclined to keep the fight standing after getting subbed in her first loss.
So this likely boils down to who the better striker is. And is the case with almost any Holm fight, we have to side with the multiple time world champion boxer. Shevchenko is a good kickboxer, but Holly is simply on a different level when it comes to the standup phase of MMA.
BETTING VALUES
Holm to win straight up is extremely expensive. Instead, try your hand at the over on 4.5 rounds at -155. While I normally don’t like round totals that high, Holm can be an extremely cautious fighter and never chases knockouts. Shevchenko is a gritty fighter that’s only been knocked out once, and she’ll likely spend a lot of time clinching with Holm.
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Edson Barboza -215
Gilbert Melendez +180
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +145
BREAKDOWN
The question here is how Melendez will look after spending more than a year away from the octagon. He’s lost three of his past four, but all of those losses came against elite fighters at 155. While Barboza is currently ranked No. 6 at 155, it’s hard to make the argument that he’s a legitimate title contender. Still, the Brazilian is riding high off a signature win over former champion Anthony Pettis.
BETTING VALUES
If Melendez is the same fighter, than he has the grinding fight style needed to neutralize Barboza’s athletic striking style. I expect him to make this an ugly fight, with plenty of clinches and chain wrestling to secure long bouts of top control. Melendez to win a good value.
HEAVYWEIGHTS
Francis Ngannou +460
Bohan Mihaljovic -600
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +160, under -190
BREAKDOWN
Ngannou is an up-and-coming heavyweight prospect in a division that’s in desperate need of new faces. The Frenchman certainly looks the part, as he’s a chiseled 6’4” with explosive power and athleticism. He’ll be the noticeably bigger fighter against Bojan Mihaljovic, a Serbian who will be making his UFC debut on the strength of a 10-fight win streak in regional promotions.
BETTING VALUES
Gambling on inexperienced heavyweights can be a dangerous affair, but Ngannou is the smart pick. He’s got two UFC fights under his belt and carries all the physical advantages here. If Ngannou to win is too expensive, I’d consider the under, as both men do not see third rounds often.
STRAWWEIGHTS
Felice Herrig -107
Kailin Curran -113
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -170, under +145
BREAKDOWN
TUF 20 alum Felice Herrig is 1-2 in her past three, but losing to contenders like Tecia Torres and Paige VanZant is nothing to be ashamed of. However, she did not look good against VanZant, as the raw prospect continually overwhelmed Herrig for three rounds. Curran is coming off a win over Emily Kagan and looking to put together the first winning streak of her UFC career.
BETTING VALUES
Neither woman looks like they’ll ever be more than mid-level strawweights, though Herrig has far more experience against a higher level opposition. However, her recent performances don’t inspire much confidence. I’d stay away from this altogether, and if Curran is a big underdog a small bet on Kailin could pay off in a toss-up fight.
BANTAMWEIGHTS
Frankie Saenz -165
Eddie Wineland +140
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -200, under +170
BREAKDOWN
No. 12 ranked Frankie Saenz takes on No. 15 Eddie Wineland in a crossroads matchup for both fighters. Saenz was recently riding a seven-fight win streak before losing a tough decision to Urijah Faber, but he could still break the top 10 with a few wins. Wineland has lost two in a row, and a third straight loss would toss him out of the rankings.
BETTING VALUES
Wineland’s diminishing skills have been visible with each outing, making it tough to see him beat a gritty fighter like Saenz. I don’t think Saenz’ line is too expensive here, and he should be able to nab a decision. The safest bet here is probably the over, as Saenz has gone to decision in four straight.
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HOW TO BET
With BookMaker’s quick and easy payout options, your winnings are always close at hand. Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time spreads, totals, props and money line are all available so start betting with BookMaker today. UFC on FOX 20 takes place July 23, 2016 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The card will be televised on FOX.
