Not a lot going on this week for UFC, but there’s still plenty of action in the sportsbook for you to consider. Today, we’re looking at a few underdogs that frankly, shouldn’t be underdogs. That means you can get a fantastic value on these fighters right now. We all know how quickly money lines can move, so you’ll want to jump on these odds right now.
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UFC 202, August 20
Conor McGregor -126 vs. Nate Diaz +106
Um, come again? Does Conor McGregor have so many loyal fans who blindly bet on him that he somehow is the favorite against the guy who beat him on just 11 days notice? What do you think happens when Nate gets a full training camp? Just a few weeks ago, the two stood next to each other at a press conference and mugged for the cameras. It looked like Nate was two full weight classes above McGregor.
Sure, the Irishman has said that he’s training better, but there are some things that can’t be fixed in a single fight camp. Like the fact it would take years for McGregor to sniff Nate’s Gracie black belt in BJJ. “Notorious” has also been very vocal about how he’s bringing in lanky southpaw boxers to spar with to train specifically for Diaz’s style, but again, Nate has been sparring with world-ranked boxers for years.
I’m not saying it’s a foregone conclusion that Nate wins. He could go the Josh Thompson route and force Nate to chase him -- something that Diaz is horrible at. Or he could make kicking the lead leg a priority, but we’ve never seen Conor really commit to those in a fight. It sounds like McGregor wants to beat Nate at his own game, which would spell doom for him.
UFC 202, August 20
Rick Story +145 vs. Donald Cerrone -170
Ok, so Donald Cerrone beat a real welterweight in Patrick Cote in his last fight. What’s more, he completely dominated and answered the question of how he would fare against a bigger man. But now he’s facing an even bigger bigger man.
Cerrone proved that he could stand up with 170-pounders against Cote -- an accomplished kickboxer. But Rick Story is a different...story. “Horror” is a straight up bully whose been plugging dudes against the fence and mugging them with dirty boxing for years. It ain’t pretty, but it’s extremely effective, especially against smaller fighters. Story will be outclassed on the feet by Cowboy, but once this fight gets to the clinch I don’t see how the former lightweight contender pushes him off. This is a bad style matchup for Cerrone in a lot of ways, and Story’s +145 line is a fantastic value.
UFC on FOX 21, August 27
Carlos Condit -125 vs. Demian Maia +105
Although Condit is 2-4 in his past six, those losses have come against champions, former champions and fellow title challengers. He is one of the most well-conditioned athletes on the roster, and his offensive output is staggering. “The Natural Born Killer” sets a brutal pace that few men can match -- and Condit came oh-so-close to winning the championship in his last fight.
But Demian Maia has nearly perfected the art of suffocating an opponent’s offense. You could broadly say that Condit is a better version of the man Maia just smothered, Matt Brown. Both Condit and Brown are high volume pressure fighters, and the Brazilian’s strategy should be exactly the same coming into this bout.
If Condit were a more explosive athlete, he could probably fend off the takedowns. But he’s always been vulnerable against dominant wrestlers, as proven by Georges St. Pierre and Johny Hendricks. Although you’ve got to love Condit’s non-stop activity from the bottom, Maia has seen every trick in the book at this point.
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