You won’t meet any MMA analyst or writer who doesn’t think that Khabib Nurmagomedov - 22-0, 7 KOs, 7 SUBs - has all the tools to become the lightweight champion. But a rash of injuries have sidelined the undefeated Russian, putting his title aspirations on hold. However, he’ll have an opportunity to claim No. 1 contender status when he meets the red-hot Tony Ferguson - 20-3, 9 KOs, 7 SUBs - on UFC on FOX 19 in April.
Bet on UFC odds at BookMaker.eu
Khabib Nurmagomedov -225
Tony Ferguson +175
Over/under 3.5 rounds, over -195, under +160
Please note, the odds at BookMaker.eu are updated daily, so the lines you see here may have changed since this article was written.
EARLY ODDS REACTION
Oddsmakers haven’t forgotten about Nurmagomedov. Despite Ferguson’s seven-fight win streak and a nearly two-year absence from the Russian, Nurmagomedov has opened as more than a 2-to-1 favorite. The over/under at 3.5 rounds is a bit high considering how aggressive Ferguson can be, but Khabib’s ability to grind out dominant decisions is obviously a big factor.
THE RETURN OF THE EAGLE
Nurmagomedov hasn’t fought since April 2014, when he picked up a dominant decision victory over Rafael dos Anjos. Yes, the same dos Anjos who has now the champion and winner of five in a row over elite opponents. That win seemed to validate the massive hype that Nurmagomedov was receiving.
Had “The Eagle” stayed healthy, there is a good number of people who truly believe that he would be the current champion. It’s hard not to agree. Watch any of his fights and his immense speed and strength immediately pops out at you. But what makes him terrifying is a powerful wrestling game that nobody has been able to stop.
In 22 pro fights, Nurmagomedov has never lost. That includes six straight UFC opponents, with notable names like Gleison Tibau, Thiago Tavares and dos Anjos. This guy is an absolute beast, and he can reintroduce himself to the world on a major network card.
But don’t count Ferguson out. One does not rack up seven straight wins in a loaded lightweight division without serious talent. While he’s never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, it’s fair to say that the Dagestani fighter has never seen anyone like Ferguson. In fact, there’s nobody quite like “El Cucuy.”
Ferguson is basically MMA’s version of the Tasmanian devil. He never stops throwing strikes, and they come from everywhere. He’s got great hand speed and unorthodox movement, making him a difficult to establish a rhythm. You just never know what he’s going to throw next.
That applies to his grappling as well. In his last fight against Edson Barboza, Ferguson was literally somersaulting into the Brazilian and trying to grab his limbs. That might be a futile exercise against somebody like Nurmagomedov, but it I wouldn’t be surprised if the American had a few new tricks up his sleeve to keep him guessing.
THE EARLY PLAYS
We’re still a few months away from this fight, which is a good thing. Because I really can’t pick a winner. There are a lot of questions about whether major surgeries have sapped some of Nurmagomedov’s physical tools. And Ferguson is one of the most creative, dangerous fighters in the lightweight division. For now, I like Ferguson’s value, but we’ll get have a more in-depth analysis during fight week.
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Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! Real-time money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC on FOX 19 takes place on April 16, 2016 in Tampa, Florida.
