The first time Stipe Miocic and Junior dos Santos met - in December 2014 - the Brazilian opened as a -200 favorite and closed at -500 in some sportsbooks. Circumstances are different this time around. Miocic is now the champion, and the Cleveland native is the one enjoying his status as more than a 2-1 favorite.
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Stipe Miocic -215
Junior dos Santos +185
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -190, under +150
It’s a dramatic reversal of fortune in a little over two year’s time - but the heavyweight division has always been the most difficult weight class to sustain any momentum. Dos Santos has had trouble regaining elite form after two brutal beatdowns courtesy of Cain Velasquez, while Miocic appears to be peaking as a fighter.
Their first encounter was a grueling trench war that left both fighters battered and exhausted after five rounds. While Dos Santos emerged with a unanimous decision win, it was much closer than the scorecards suggested.
Since then, JDS has only fought once a year. Though he’s just 33, it seems as if all the wars he’s been through are quickly catching up to him. Minor injuries have kept him from fighting more consistently, and even though he won decisively in his last outing over Ben Rothwell, it’s clear that he’s no longer the aggressive boxer that tore through the UFC ranks to capture the championship.
In contrast, Miocic has fought four times since their first scrap, scoring KO’s in every bout. He had the best year of any heavyweight in 2016, putting Andrei Arlovski, then-champion Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem to sleep - all in the first round.
How They Stack Up
On paper, this is a matchup between the two best technical boxers in the division. Miocic is a former Golden Gloves champion, while JDS’ is renowned for his pugilistic skills. It’s possible that the champion resorts to his wrestling to attack the Brazilian, but Dos Santos has fantastic takedown defense against anybody not named Cain Velasquez.
What this comes down to is their chins. Miocic hasn’t taken a significant amount of punishment inside the octagon. Dos Santos has. If the rematch is anything like their first scrap, I’m not so sure JDS has the ability to overcome a back-and-forth war against a heavy hitter like Miocic.
He seems to be aware of his growing limitations as well. Against the glass-jawed Overeem, dos Santos was hesitant to pull the trigger out of respect for the kickboxer’s power. It was surprising to see the normally aggressive fighter so tentative against a guy that he could easily knock out. His defensive approach mattered little, as Overeem laid him out anyway.
Miocic might not have the flashy kickboxing of The Reem, but he does have the same sort of knockout power. What’s more, he proved against Overeem that he could get rocked and still come back and sling leather. That durability, combined with his knockout power, will likely be the key differencemakers in this matchup.
How You Should Bet
If you were going to bet Miocic, it’d be wise to place your bet now. Like dos Santos’ line the first time around, he’s likely to close at a much more expensive price. The Brazilian just isn’t the same fighter he was when he first entered the UFC, while Miocic has never looked better. There’s a great chance the the champion ties the heavyweight record for most title defenses against dos Santos.
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UFC 211 takes place on Saturday, May 13, 2017 at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas. The main card airs on pay-per-view starting 9 p.m. ET following the FS1 prelims.
