There's no better way for the UFC to start 2016 off than to pit two of the most violent fighters on the roster in the octagon. This Saturday, welterweight champion Robbie Lawler will defend his title against Carlos Condit in the headlining bout of UFC 195. Could the first main event of the year also produce the Fight of the Year? I wouldn't put it past these two. Let's break it down.
UFC 195 odds at BookMaker.eu
Carlos Condit +115
Robbie Lawler -145
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -125, under +105
Please note, the odds listed here may have changed, as BookMaker updates their lines on a daily basis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Lawler made the first defense of his title as an underdog against Rory MacDonald. Now it finally seems as if oddsmakers are giving him the respect he deserves. But make no mistake, the talent gap between Lawler and the top contenders is razor thin, if there is any at all. I'd expect this line to get closer to pick'em odds before fight night. I'm frankly a bit shocked at the 4.5 round over/under, but Lawler has gone to the final bell in his last three fights.
THE STAKES
There's the welterweight belt, for starters. And Lawler's Cinderella Man story from Strikeforce afterthought to UFC champion is a movie script waiting to happen. But that could all come to an end against the most dangerous opponent he's ever come across in the octagon. And by dangerous, I don't mean it in the sense of winning or losing, but in the fact that any encounter with Condit will leave an opponent bloody.
FIGHT PREVIEW
Lawler is still one of the hardest punchers in the UFC, but he's evolved considerably since his brawling days in Strikeforce. His striking has become increasingly technical and efficient, allowing him to rely less on landing a knockout blow. Because his power is so potent, it somewhat overshadows a beautiful standup game.
The champion is absolutely masterful when it comes to timing and baiting, lulling his opponents with half-speed sparring before unloading a power punch. And few are as comfortable in the pocket as Lawler, who slips and rips like a natural. He accents his combinations with a lethal left kick that he throws at all levels, often catching opponents that are trying to duck under his combinations.
But it's Lawler's intangibles that stand head and shoulders above his elite skills. Even when he's rocked and nearly out, Lawler's survival instincts will kick in and somehow allow him to recover. And as we saw against Rory MacDonald, a wounded Lawler is still an extremely dangerous animal. In a dogfight, nobody seems better equipped than Lawler to gut out a win.
Carlos Condit is a pressure fighter that does his best on the assault. And when he's in all-out attack mode, it's a thing of beauty. He mixes up punching combinations with knees, elbows and kicks, making him one of the most unpredictable strikers in the game. For good measure, The Natural Born Killer will throw everything from flying knees to side kicks to the thigh to keep his opponent off balance.
Like Lawler, Condit loves a good war in the trenches. He is one of the best conditioned welterweights on the planet, and his pace is nearly impossible to keep up with. Condit could be down on all rounds and he'd still just keep coming. Georges St. Pierre went on record recently saying that Condit was the most difficult opponent to prepare for.
THE SMART PLAYS
This fight is pretty much a toss-up. Lawler is vulnerable to big hits, and nobody is better equipped to capitalize on that then Carlos Condit. But I've learned to never bet against Lawler's heart. As dumb as that sounds, this is a man with an unbreakable will.
If you're looking for value, the +105 on the under looks great to me. I know that Lawler has made a habit of going to the bell lately, but these guys are just too savage for me to believe that it'll happen again.
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. UFC 195 takes place Saturday, January 2, 2016 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on FOX Sports 1.
