While the matchup between Ronaldo Souza and Vitor Belfort this Saturday isn’t an official title eliminator, it’s hard to make a title argument for anyone else besides the winner. Souza is ranked No. 2 and Belfort No. 3 by the UFC, while No. 1 contender Chris Weidman is already set to face champion Luke Rockhold at UFC 198. Needless to say, the stakes are high even without a title on the line.
Bet on UFC 198 odds at BookMaker.eu
Ronaldo Souza -300
Vitor Belfort +250
Over 1.5 rounds, over +130, under -150
Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily. The lines listed here may have changed since this article was posted.
THE STAKES
Souza’s last fight was a razor thin split decision loss in a de facto title eliminator against Yoel Romero -- who tested positive for PEDS after the fight. It sucks that “Jacare” had to take a step back because of a loss against a cheater, but that’s the nature of the game. Still, he’s hung around the division’s elite long enough and has yet to challenge for the title. With a win, it’ll be easy to sell him as a new face against the winner of Rockhold-Weidman.
For Belfort, a title shot would have a lot to do with the outcome of the upcoming championship bout. He was easily pounded out by then-Chris Weidman in his first challenge at UFC 187. But he does have a spectacular spinning heel kick KO of Luke Rockhold, and the champion has been vocal about exacting his revenge ever since.
FIGHT BREAKDOWN
It’s easy to label this as a style matchup. It’s no secret that Souza is a multiple-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and Belfort is one of the most prolific knockout artists in the promotion’s history. It only takes a quick glance at their records -- 18 subs for Souza and 18 KOs for Belfort -- to figure out their strengths.
But that doesn’t mean they’re one-dimensional fighters. Far from it. Souza has become a very good boxer over the years, and his heavily muscled frame accurately portrays the power with which he can bang. And despite Belfort’s lengthy highlight reel of flashy knockouts, he’s also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt that nearly snapped the great Jon Jones’ arm in half.
Still, Jacare would have to be an idiot to try and test his standup against the lightning quick hands of Vitor Belfort. While the 39-year old Belfort looks noticeably deflated since TRT was banned, he has always had some of the fastest, most lethal strikes in the sport. In his first post-TRT match, he was able to blitz Chris Weidman, though the old power was noticeably missing. He also gassed after his initial onslaught, which was disturbing.
ANALYSIS AND VALUE BETS
The UFC odds at BookMaker are absolutely correct in making Souza a 3-to-1 betting favorite. Post-TRT Belfort is not the same fighter that notched three straight KOs to earn a title shot. This newer, weaker version can be dragged to the mat by the massive Souza. And when that happens, it’s easy to see the bigger man controlling him for the majority of the fight.
If Souza to win straight up is too expensive, I love the value the over provides at +130. We saw Souza take some brutal punishment against Romero, and it’s doubtful that Belfort hits him as hard. Expect Jacare to take his time to make sure this fight goes to the ground, where Belfort’s own BJJ skills will allow him to defend far past the 1.5 round mark.
UFC Odds: Ronaldo Souza SUB Vitor Belfort, Round 4
HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC 198 takes place on Saturday, May 14 at the Arena de Baixada stadium in Curitiba, Brazil. The main card will be televised on pay-per-view following the prelims on Fox Sports 1.
