Through March 2017, the UFC has held eight events - so in just three months you’ve had betting opportunities on nearly 100 fights. With the first quarter of the year in the books, today we’re looking at some of the biggest upsets of the year so far.
Sorting through the UFC odds at BookMaker.eu, we’ve compiled a list of every underdog who was at least +200 and came through for bettors. Let’s go through them in chronological order.
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UFC Fight Night 103, Feb 4
Felice Herrig +321 vs. Alexa Grasso -393
Volkan Oezdemir +295 vs. Ovince St. Preux -365
Marcel Fortuna +210 vs. Anthony Hamilton -260
Lessons Learned
Think twice when a hyped prospect meets a rejuvenated veteran, as is the case with Felice Herrig. Grasso came in with a shiny undefeated record and a smooth victory over Heather Clark. But Herrig took advantage of Grasso’s tendency to be overly patient and snuck out a win with a higher output and aggression.
St. Preux cannot be trusted anymore, especially after a loss to a UFC rookie making a short notice debut. Though OSP has some good wins and even fought for the title, something has been clearly off for former Tennessee linebacker. He’s tentative and gunshy, and needs to build his confidence before we accept him back into our circle of trust.
Marcel Fortuna was a light heavyweight who moved up in weight class to punch his ticket into the UFC. The fact that he knocked out a much bigger Anthony Hamilton (a true heavyweight), just reiterates the fact that the heavyweight division is an extremely risky weight class to bet on.
UFC Fight Night 105, Feb 19
Randa Markos +218 vs. Carla Esparza -265
Lessons Learned
The goodwill that Carla Esparza had as a former champion is gone. While she’s still an excellent wrestler, her inability to evolve her standup has held her back. Markos isn’t nearly as accomplished as “Cookie Monster”, but she was able to eke out a win with her gutsy striking. You just can’t be so one-dimensional in the UFC these days.
UFC 209, Mar 4
Darren Elkins +520 vs. Mirsad Bektic -759
David Teymur +310 vs. Lando Vannata -385
Daniel Kelly +200 vs. Rashad Evans -246
Lessons Learned
Darren Elkins’ win over Bektic is proof that anything can happen in MMA. A massive +520 favorite in the UFC fight odds at BookMaker.eu, Elkins pulled out one of the most stunning comebacks in recent memory with a dramatic third-round stoppage of Mirsad Bektic - who had been absolutely dominating this matchup. These two could fight 100 more times and Bektic would win 99 times - this scrap just happened to be one of the exception.
It pays to watch tape, as David Teymur proved against Lando Vannata. It was easy to chalk this up as a win for Vannata, with his eye-opening debut against Tony Ferguson and spinning wheel kick knockout of John Makdessi. But Teymur also showed excellent striking skills in both of his prior UFC fights, even though there were much less people watching.
Looks can be deceiving, as Daniel Kelly keeps reminding us. The guy looks like a soccer dad, dadbod and all. Yet he keeps beating shredded athletes behind a gritty style and an Olympic-level judo base. Part of his upset win was due to Evans’ sharp physical decline, but Kelly’s heart and skill make him an intriguing play. We can already assume he’ll be another big underdog in his next matcup.
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