Dana White and Company isn’t keeping the foot on the gas after UFC 200. Less than a week after its milestone event, bantamweight contenders Michael McDonald and John Lineker will headline a Fight Night card set for this Wednesday. Let’s run through your betting options for the card and make some quick picks.
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MAIN EVENT
Bantamweights
John Lineker -175
Michael McDonald +155
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -165, under +145
Pick: McDonald UD Lineker
McDonald is a steal as a +155 underdog. He’s younger, six inches taller and can match Lineker’s vaunted speed. While Lineker has the advantage in terms of punching power, McDonald is the more well-rounded fighter overall. In fact, the only reason I can think of that makes McDonald the underdog is the rash of injuries he’s had to overcome recently.
But at 25, McDonald is young enough to make a full recovery and keep improving. Many felt that he was a surefire future contender before being sidelined, and there’s no reason that should change now. As long as he avoids getting into a brawl with Lineker, he should be able to outpoint the shorter man.
Approach the 1.5 round over/under with some trepidation, as bantamweights aren’t known for early stoppages. I’d lean towards the over, as both men are extremely tough outs.
CO-MAIN EVENT
Lightweights
Tony Ferguson
Landon Vannata
Over/under rounds, over , under
Pick: Ferguson TKO Vannata, Round 1
We don’t know much about Landon Vannata, but we know enough. The Jackson-Wink fighter is making a short notice debut against one of the best lightweights in the world. If Vannata was anywhere near “El Cucuy’s” level, he would have already been signed to the UFC. And while the rookie might become a player at 155 someday, asking him to take on a violent, ultra-aggressive fighter like Ferguson in his first fight is a huge ask.
Because Ferguson is gunning for a title shot, expect him to look for an early finish. Anything less would be a disappointment against a no-name fighter like Vannata. Given his unpredictable style and outmatched opponent, Ferguson is a safe bet to come under the 1.5 over/under. It’s offers a far better value than betting him to win straight up.
Middleweights
Tim Boetsch
Josh Samman
Over/under rounds, over , under
Pick: Samman UD Boetsch
When he’s inside the octagon, Boetsch is a very old 35. He’s been in more than a few bloody wars and has been knocked out on a few occasions. Never a fast fighter to begin with, “The Barbarian” has slowed down even more in recent fights, although he still retains respectable power.
Samman is by far the fresher fighter, and carries a few key physical advantages. First, he’s seven years the junior of Boetsch has been in far less fights. Second, he’s four inches taller and much more athletic. If he can avoid extended periods in the clinch, Samman should be able to stick-and-move his way to unanimous decision.
Heavyweights
Alexey Oliynyk
Daniel Omielanczuk
Over/under rounds, over , under
Pick: Oliynyk SUB Omielanczuk, Round 3
Russian heavyweight Alexey Oliynyk returns to the octagon for the first time since 2014, and he’ll look to keep an 11-fight winning streak intact. Amazingly, this bout marks Oliynyk’s 60th pro fight. His opponent, Daniel Omielanczuk, is ranked No. 15 by the promotion, that speaks more to the shallow depth of the heavyweight division more than it does to Polish native’s promise.
It’s hard not to like Oliynyk’s experience and submission savvy. He’s submitted 40 opponents in 50 career victories, and that includes wins over notable fighters like Mirko Cro Cop, Jared Rosholt and Jeff Monson. Omielanczuk hasn’t shown enough to beat mid-tier fighters yet, and he’ll run into some problems against the wiley veteran.
Flyweights
Louis Smolka
Ben Nguyen
Over/under rounds, over , under
PICK: Nguyen UD Smolka
Maybe one day Smolka’s standup game will catch up to his superb mat skills. If and when that day comes, the Hawaiian will be a title contender. But this Wednesday, expect Ben Nguyen to expose Smolka’s striking limitations in a bad way. Although Smolka is noticeably taller fighter, Nguyen thrives in close quarters combat.
While there is a very real danger that Smolka will drag this fight to the ground, Nguyen is a good enough athlete to keep this fight standing for the majority of three rounds. In a sparring match, the advantage is all Nguyen’s.
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HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines at BookMaker Sportsbook and start wagering now. With our live betting options, you can also wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. UFC Fight Night 91 takes place on Wednesday, July 13, 2016 at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, SD. The card will be televised on FOX Sports 1 starting 9 p.m. ET.
