Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler is the most entertaining champion in the UFC, even though his habit of eking out grueling split decisions might be the least sustainable method of retaining a title. But damn is he fun to watch, producing one “Fight of the Year” contender after another. Let’s take a look at a few fights the welterweight champion could take, and project some odds.
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THE IMMEDIATE REMATCH
Projected Odds
Robbie Lawler -110
Carlos Condit -110
These dudes set the bar insanely high for 2016, putting on an early favorite for Fight of the Year in the UFC’s first event of the year. Most people scoring the fight, myself included, felt that Condit came out ahead on the scorecards - but nobody is really complaining too much about the result. Afterwards, Lawler proposed that they go again, and the crowd went wild.
Dana White seemed a bit more hesitant about an immediate rematch, but I doubt anyone would object. Their first scrap was one of the rare cases where a bout actually lived up to our expectations of bloody violence.
THE PROMISED ONE
Projected Odds
Robbie Lawler -150
Tyron Woodley +135
After beating Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 183, Tyron Woodley was publicly promised the next shot at the belt. But any UFC fan knows how quickly things can change when it comes to title challenges. Woodley is finding that out now as he waits in limbo to see if he’ll face Lawler next.
T-Wood is a compelling contender in his own right. He’s by far the better athlete of the two, blessed with speed and explosive power. And his elite wrestling skills give him another dimension that Condit and MacDonald didn’t possess. Lawler’s sprawl is truly world-class, and I know I’d love to see him fend off Woodley’s dynamic takedowns.
A DARK HORSE CONTENDER
Projected Odds
Robbie Lawler -175
Demian Maia +200
At 38 years old, Maia remains an elite 170-pounder. And after his drubbing of Gunnar Nelson at UFC 194, he’s won four straight in a deep class. The guy just won’t go away, hanging around the top-5 like a tough old dog that doesn’t know it’s supposed to done yet.
What’s intriguing about a Lawler vs. Maia bout is that it’s a pure style matchup. Maia drags the fight to the ground at all costs, where he can apply the best MMA jiu-jitsu the sport has ever seen. Lawler is a guy that wants to keep the fight standing, where he can unleash the ridiculous thunder in his fists. Who’d be able to impose their style on the other? I’d lean towards Lawler, but Maia can never be counted out.
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