The wait is almost over. The most loaded, highly anticipated card in UFC history goes down this Saturday. We’ve been covering the odds for months, but now you’ve only got a few days to lock in your bets. Last week, we covered your betting options for the prelims. Today, we’re focusing on the main card.
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MAIN EVENT
Light Heavyweight Championship
Daniel Cormier +260
Jon Jones -315
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -145, under +125
THE SMART PLAYS
Although Jones didn’t look like the usual killer in his return bout against Ovince St. Preux, in no way did he look diminished. He still holds all the physical advantages over Cormier, and I’m not sure DC -- or any other light heavyweight -- can solve the puzzle that is Jones’ reach. Cormier is going to try and make this a close quarters fight, but he’s going to take a ton of damage getting into range.
Jones to win at -315 is the right play, although it’s an expensive one. If you’re looking for a better value, consider the over on 4.5 rounds at -145. Their first fight went to decision, DC nor Jones have never been stopped and if Jones couldn’t finish OSP then I don’t see him putting Cormier away.
CO-MAIN EVENT
Heavyweights
Brock Lesnar +150
Mark Hunt -175
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over +200, under -240
THE SMART PLAYS
This is an extremely tough fight to call. Common sense points to Hunt -- an elite heavyweight -- punching the stuffing out of Lesnar -- who hasn’t competed in MMA since 2011. But Lesnar is a once-in-a-generation athletic specimen with an elite skill -- wrestling -- that also happens to be Hunt’s biggest weakness.
As skilled as Hunt is on the feet, I’m just not sure he can handle Lesnar’s size and ferocious strength. If Lesnar approaches +170, I’d lay a small bet on him. The over at +200 is also intriguing, as a 1.5 over/under represents just 7 and a half minutes of ring time. If this fight ends up on the ground, a good chunk of time will be spent on positioning.
Women’s Bantamweight Championship
Amanda Nunes +210
Miesha Tate -250
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -225, under +190
THE SMART PLAYS
Tate is clearly outclassed on the feet by Nunes, who has some of the fastest hands in the division. However, the sum of Tate’s skills is greater than Nunes, especially when it comes to wrestling and the ability to fight deep into a bout. Nunes’ cardio has always been a huge question mark, and that weakness reared its ugly head as recently as her last bout -- and that was a three-rounder as opposed to a five-round championship bout.
It’s difficult to bet on Nunes, given the issues she has with her gas tank and the fact that Tate looks as fresh in the fifth round as she does in her first. But here’s the gamble -- Nunes is clearly the better kickboxer, and she can definitely steal rounds if she stays at distance. A small bet on Nunes could pay off big as Tate is not a dominant fighter in any area.
Men’s Interim Featherweight Championship
Frankie Edgar -115
Jose Aldo -105
Over/under 4.5 rounds, over -120, under +100
THE SMART PLAYS
Edgar and Aldo were deadlocked at pick’em odds for a few weeks, but Edgar has pulled ahead as a slight favorite in the past few weeks. It’s understandable: the Hall of Famer has simply never looked better at any point in his illustrious career. While Aldo won their first encounter, it was an extremely close affair -- and we also have no idea how the Brazilian will bounce back after getting starched by Conor McGregor in the biggest fight of his career.
This fight is pretty much a tossup, so a savvy bettor should probably lean towards whoever the underdog is. In this case, it’s easy to make a case for Aldo, as he holds advantages in speed and athleticism. The safest bet here is the over, as their first scrap went to the final bell, it’s hard to see either one of them stopping the other.
Heavyweights
Cain Velasquez -300
Travis Browne +250
Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -120, under +100
THE SMART PLAYS
Former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is arguably the most talented fighter in the division, but his struggles with injuries have derailed a career that seemed destined for greatness. Make no mistake though, a healthy Cain would probably be favored against any other fighter in the weight class. Oddsmakers clearly still fear Velasquez’s talent, as he’s a 3-1 favorite coming in.
I would never bet against a healthy Velasquez fighting at sea level. Browne might be a top-5 heavyweight, but his lanky frame isn’t built to withstand constant takedown attempts. Cain to win is a safe play.
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HOW TO BET
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker sportsbook! You can even wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Money lines, totals, props and money line are all available now. UFC Fight Night 90 takes place on July 7 on Fight Pass, The Ultimate Fighter 23 Finale takes place on July 8 on FS1, and UFC 200 takes place on July 9 on pay-per-view.
